Tensions rise in North Korea as experts warn of possible war
North Korea experts have always been cautious, trying to avoid creating panic. But recently, two experts have made waves in this circle.
Last week, two prominent analysts dropped a bomb. They believe the isolated country’s leaders are preparing for war.
They say Kim Jong Un has abandoned his basic goal of rapprochement and reunification with South Korea. Instead, he presented North and South as two independent countries at war with each other.
“We believe that Kim Jong Un has made the strategic decision to go to war, just as his grandfather did in 1950,” said Robert L. Carlin, a former CIA analyst, and Siegfried S. Hecker, a nuclear scientist who has visited North Korea many times, wrote in an article published on the professional website 38 North.
Such views have set off alarm bells in Washington and Seoul and sparked a massive debate in North Korea watch circles.
However, the BBC interviewed seven experts in Asia, Europe and North America, and none of them supported this view.
“It’s not in the North Korean style to put the entire regime at risk of a potentially catastrophic conflict. They have proven to be ruthless Machiavellians,” said Christopher Green, a North Korea watcher at the North Korea Group.
He and others noted that North Korea often puts on a show to get Western powers to sit down for dialogue; there is also political pressure at home.
But they all agreed that Kim Jong-un’s approach was too menacing to ignore and that his regime had become more dangerous.
While most believe war remains unlikely, some fear a more limited attack is possible.
What triggered all this?
People who closely follow North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are used to his nuclear threats, but some say the latest information from Pyongyang is of a different nature.
He said on New Year’s Eve that “it is a fait accompli that war may break out on the Korean peninsula at any time.” Six days later, North Korean troops fired artillery shells across the border.
Since early January, North Korea has also claimed to have tested a new solid-fuel missile and underwater attack drones it said could carry nuclear weapons.
In the previous two years, North Korea had blatantly violated U.N. sanctions with missile launches and weapons development on an almost monthly basis.
What was truly jaw-dropping, however, was his formal announcement last week that he was abandoning his goal of unification.
Unification with South Korea has been a key part of North Korea’s official ideology since the founding of the country – albeit an increasingly unrealistic one.
Is it possible to carry out a limited strike?
Carlin and Dr. Heck, analysts who predict war, interpret all of this to mean that Kim Jong Un has decided to fight a war.
But most analysts disagree. Seong-Hyon Lee of the George HW Bush Foundation notes that North Korea will reopen to foreign tourists next month and that the country has sold its own artillery shells to Russia for use in the war effort — —If North Korea were to go to war, it simply couldn’t afford it.
The ultimate deterrent factor, however, is that the U.S. and South Korean militaries are far more advanced if North Korea attacks.
“An all-out war would probably kill a lot of South Koreans, but it would be the end of Kim Jong Un and his regime,” said Kookmin University’s Ward.
Instead, he and others warned that conditions were forming for small-scale operations.
Strategies for gaining chips
Others argue that concerns about war should also be factored into Kim Jong Un’s pattern of actions.
“Throughout North Korea’s history, when it hopes to negotiate, it often uses provocations to attract the attention of other countries.” Dr. Lee explained.
The North Korean regime continues to suffer economic sanctions, and 2024 is an election year for its enemies – the United States will hold a presidential election and South Korea will hold a congressional election.
“The current U.S. administration under President Joe Biden is too preoccupied with Ukraine and Gaza to pay attention to North Korea, and Pyongyang typically has the most contacts with Republican administrations,” said analysts.
Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump famously had a bromance before denuclearization talks collapsed in 2019 – and the North Korean leader may be waiting for the former US president to return to the White House, when he may Weaken the alliance with South Korea and become open to dialogue again.
Domestic goals
Others say that everything Kim Jong-un does is to stabilize his regime.
“This seems to be an ideological adjustment for the survival of the regime,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. “North Koreans are increasingly aware of the failures of their communist state compared to South Korea.”
North Korea’s threats were aimed at solidifying its new North-South policy, with the ultimate goal of strengthening its power at home.
Analysts say that while it is important for South Korea, the United States and allies to prepare for the worst-case scenario, North Korea’s internal situation and broader geopolitics also deserve further study.
Ultimately, Dr. Lee believes, the best way to understand the North Korean leader’s thinking is to engage with him.
“The international community does not view the United States‘ dialogue with Kim Jong Un as surrendering to Kim Jong Un’s threats. It is seen as a necessary means to achieve its goals,” he said.
“Kelly Ng contributed reporting.”