Ash Donelon
THE PROPHECY OF THE NUMBER CRUSHERS:
The case has been updated after the match between Aston Villa and Brentford, which ended 3-3.
You probably won’t be met with many skeptical glances if you predict that Aston Villa and Tottenham join Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City in the Champions League group stage next season.
Most things indicate that even the season’s fifth best team in England will be given a place in the best company in Europe.
Unfortunately, however, there is little evidence that one of the five tickets ends up in Erik ten Hag’s hands.
Three fateful, late late goals spread over two trips to the capital have made a demanding task almost impossible.
To put the current starting point into perspective:
Manchester United can end the Premier League season with a maximum of 72 points. That’s only 12 points more than Aston Villa have right now. Unai Emery’s team will be playing for 18 points before the end of the season.
In other words, they only need four wins in the last six to be by far secured a place ahead of United in the table. Aston Villa have a far better goal difference.
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Tottenham, on the other hand, have 57 points, and the lily-whites from London will play for a total of 24 points before the season is over. They need five wins in the last eight to practically secure a place in the top five.
And this is what the two teams must deliver if United win all their remaining games. That in itself also appears very unlikely.
The above assumptions are also reflected in the number crunchers’ predictions for the outcome of the Premier League season. Opta’s supercomputer has calculated that United will be closer to 10th place than 5th place at the end of the season.
This is how 10,000 Opta simulations have calculated the final table in the Premier League (from 4th to 10th place):
4th place: Aston Villa (69.3 points)
5th place: Tottenham (69 points)
6th place: Manchester United (60.6 points)
7th place: Newcastle (56.8 points)
8th place: Chelsea (56.2 points)
9th place: West Ham (54 points)
10th place: Brighton (53.5 points)