NEW YORK — The fear now is that Vladimir Putin is preparing the ground for new aggressions beyond the Ukrainian one, with accusations launched against Kiev, the USA and the Western allies in general, for their non-existent involvement in the attack carried out by ISIS in Moscow. The first objective could be the Baltic countries, starting with Estonia, because they are easy to attack and fall within the borders of the Soviet empire which the head of the Kremlin intends to resurrect, having already declared that its dissolution was the greatest tragedy of the recent history.
During yesterday’s briefing with journalists, the spokesperson of the State Department Matthew Miller he limited himself to dismissing the Russian outbursts as follows: «There is no comment to make on Ukraine’s involvement, for the simple reason that it did not happen. It’s just propaganda, used to continue the aggression.” It is the most appropriate response for at least two reasons: first, to nip Moscow’s lies in the bud; second, avoid getting involved in a rhetorical escalation, which would increase tensions and only end up giving a certain legitimacy to Putin’s false version. The problem is that the Russian leadership did not just point the finger at Kiev, but accused the US and its allies of potentially having ordered the attack, training those responsible and opening an escape corridor towards Ukraine.
On this point, Moscow was even denied by its Belarusian ally Alexander Lukashenko, who carelessly revealed how ISIS men were actually trying to escape to his country. If the situation escalates, perhaps US intelligence could reveal some of the information that prompted it to raise the alarm on March 7. But the truth is optional in Russian communications, and so what really matters is the purpose of the lies being propagated.
In this sense, the extension of the accusations to the US and its allies is worrying, because it seems to point beyond Kiev, with the possible aim of justifying reprisals in other regions.
According to American sources, the first target could be the Baltic countries. Starting from Estonia, which has a significant population of Russian origin, which could provide the same excuse used to attack Donbass. These are members of NATO, which is already fortifying their defenses, and under Article V would be forced to intervene in their defense, running the risk of World War III. But Putin is perhaps betting on the fact that the Alliance would not ultimately have the courage to trigger such a clash, or perhaps he is banking on the return of Donald Trump at the White House, thinking he would be more malleable and cooperative. He has already made this mistake in Ukraine, where he expected to prevail in a few days, so it is essential to stop him there. What is needed is not total victory, but the continuation of defense against aggression, which limits Moscow’s resources to attempt new adventures.