- Anthony Zurcher
- BBC North America correspondent
Boxer Mike Tyson (Mike Tyson) said: “Before being hit head-on, everyone has their own plan.” This famous saying also applies to politics.
Joe Biden (Joe Biden) started his presidency with a full plan: to ease the new crown epidemic, infrastructure investment and expand the government’s safety net.
But in the past month and a half, he received a punch in the mouth.
Biden’s approval rating plummeted because of the chaotic situation of Afghanistan’s troop withdrawal, the rapid rise in inflation, and concerns about the spread of the new crown virus Delta variant, which weakened people’s trust in the capabilities of his government, especially among independent voters.
Although some of Biden’s plans, such as epidemic relief, have become law, the prospects for other parts are doubtful because the infighting of the Democrats and the resistance of almost all Republicans have brought great obstacles.
When Biden attends this year’s UN General Assembly meeting in a high profile, both the world and the country will pay attention to and think about some of the major issues he faces.
These challenges are not only opportunities for political revival, but also the danger of getting deeper into the political abyss.
Biden’s plan
Earlier this year, the Democratic Party formulated a two-step strategy to implement a legislative plan during the first half of Biden’s term.
The first is the bipartisan infrastructure spending plan. The Senate passed the bill in August, but it was shelved in the House of Representatives. It awaits approval along with Biden’s second plan. Biden’s second plan is a multi-trillion-dollar gift package covering child upbringing, education, medical care, elderly care, family vacations, environment…almost every priority of the Democratic Party.
The second big gift package was promoted as Biden’s vision of “rebuilding a better future” and “caring for the economy”, which is the key to the success or failure of the Biden administration this year. This package only requires Democrats to vote to pass it in Congress, but getting these Democrats to agree on the size and scope of the legislation is a difficult task.
The best example of the disagreement within the Democratic Party may be the repeated repetition of relevant spending plans in public debates in the U.S. Senate. Joe Manchin, an influential centrist in West Virginia, made it clear that he would not support spending plans that cost more than $1.5 trillion. The senator from a coal-producing area is worried about environmental factors and tax increases, which he believes will weaken the United States’ global competitiveness.
Bernie Sanders, the former presidential candidate of Vermont, has worked harder to unite liberal grassroots than any politician in decades. He said that his camp has abandoned the $6 trillion plan, and he will not accept any plan less than $3.5 trillion. He is particularly keen to expand the government’s medical care for the elderly. This may be a step towards transforming the popular Medicare (Medicare) into a national health insurance plan for all Americans.
Since there is almost no room for error, whether it is a senator or an intra-party faction, it is possible that any spending plan may not be passed by Congress, and the Democrats have only a slight advantage.
Biden must make everyone in the Democratic camp happy, or at least unhappy within a controllable range.
To further complicate matters, the US debt ceiling has expanded and the budget for the next fiscal year needs to be approved in the next few weeks to avoid a government shutdown. If any of them encounter obstacles, it may undermine Biden’s plan.
Abortion
This should be a hot political topic next year, because the US Supreme Court will hear a case, and Mississippi has a law that prohibits abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
However, an abortion ban in Texas has accelerated the progress. By allowing the law to take effect, the Supreme Court has sent the clearest signal that it may be preparing to overturn Rowe v. Wade. This is a landmark case that provides for the right to abortion and allows states to strictly restrict abortion within their jurisdiction, or even make it illegal.
This signal has increased pressure on Biden and the Democratic Party to require them to incorporate the protection of abortion rights into federal law before the United States becomes a patchwork of state-level regulations and prohibitions.
The Biden administration has filed a lawsuit against Texas, but abortion rights advocates hope the White House will take action through Congress. This effort may eventually be blocked by Republicans in the Senate.
But this battle may help the Democrats win their core voters before the 2022 midterm elections. Texas law stipulates that abortion is prohibited after six weeks of pregnancy. Many women do not know that they are pregnant at this point, and rape and incest are no exception. This position has received limited support in the United States. Emphasizing this issue may help win back the support of some moderates, which Biden has lost this summer.
But if Biden is considered to be inadequate, his failure on abortion may eventually disappoint his Democratic base camp.
New coronavirus
The White House led by Biden has always believed that the success of this administration lies in its effective response to the new crown epidemic. In July of this year, the President told Americans that they were close to “independence” from the virus. Later, the Delta virus variant became popular, hospital emergency rooms were crowded with patients who refused to be vaccinated, and vaccines in the United States were sufficient, free, and effective.
This changed the tone of the president. He accused that 25% of the population was still not vaccinated, putting the country at risk, and ordered the public to be vaccinated or tested, which would cover 100 million American workers.
Initial attention was focused on how unvaccinated people will cope with stress. Republicans who promised to file a lawsuit and a political boycott united to defend them.
However, since then, polls have shown a clear majority to support the president. In a survey conducted by consulting firm Morning Consult, 58% of people support mandatory vaccination or virus testing for private companies with more than 100 employees. A similar proportion also supports mandatory vaccination for public employees and many health care workers. An Ipsos survey shows that independent voters support these two measures by more than 60%.
These figures show that the fight against vaccine enforcement may become a political issue for the Democratic Party to win.
Afghanistan
As mentioned earlier, the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has had a major impact on Biden’s political status. Biden’s approval rating has fallen from the envy of a few former presidents to a gray area hovering between the success and failure of future elections.
Although the White House may hope that over time, the chaos caused by the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will lose its political influence, but it may still cause more trouble. If Afghanistan becomes a safe haven for Islamic militants, if American citizens still staying there are threatened; or if the Taliban regime shakes American allies in the region, Biden’s public image may continue to be affected.
At the same time, Trump and other Republicans are determined to continue turning the Afghanistan issue into a bipartisan political weapon. They called on Secretary of State Blincoln to resign, and (and some Democrats) are digging into more details about the decision, insisting that this is a dangerous timetable for withdrawal.
Expect to hear a lot about Afghanistan in the midterm elections.
Diplomatic issues
While Biden is trying to solve domestic problems, other countries around the world are not idle.
International affairs should have been Biden’s best. He served as Vice President for 8 years and served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for decades.
However, experience does not always make you succeed easily.
Last week, the United States had to resort to diplomatic measures to stop losses. The much-discussed defense agreement between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom made France angry, and France lost its multi-billion-dollar submarine deal with Australia.
EU leaders may think that Biden will drastically change the “America First” route of the Trump era, so they are shocked by the signing of the defense agreement. The U.S. agreement cemented a friendly British alliance with Trump, and at the same time reached the large-scale arms deal that the previous administration often boasted.
Although there may be few American voters concerned about the closeness of the relationship between the United States and France, the dispute may have an impact on the president’s political agenda. At the upcoming global climate summit, he counts on European cooperation. The environmental issue is a very important issue for many voters, especially in the Democratic camp.
All this means that at this week’s UN General Assembly, Biden will have a heavy job to do. The United States recently announced that it will reopen in November to European tourists who have been vaccinated. This may just be a good start to the outside world.