In the last 22 months, China has probably been the most fitting example of how certain measures – albeit inapplicable at certain latitudes – were the most adequate to contain the explosion of infections. The numbers say it, which is not random. The Covid-zero strategy pursued by Beijing has worked and has made Western disasters an example that the Chinese have looked at, for all these months, almost with arrogance. Of course, the hard lockdowns imposed by the Chinese Communist Party on millions of people, in the first case of positivity, are typically Chinese operations that would be impractical in the West.
The unknown Olympics
But they worked. It is a fact. Now, however, Xi Jinping’s plan creaks. Because the pandemic has moved on and the Omicron variant is shuffling every card. The very high rate of transmissibility of Omicron, which in Western countries is registering impetuous numbers of contagion, is also putting Chinese strategies to the test. And with the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics almost upon us (scheduled for February 2022), doubts have thickened quickly.
To date, China offers a particular picture. The country’s ability to keep the virus at bay has resulted in low levels of natural immunity. And despite vaccination rates are high, the effectiveness of Chinese Omicron vaccines remains a big question mark. For this reason, it is now widely believed that the spread of Omicron will be difficult to manage, even for the Chinese system, leading – if the government line remains intact – to new and important restrictions.
Almost in Tianjin and Henan
On Sunday, authorities in Tianjin, a port city connected to Beijing by a fast train that takes half an hour to travel, said they had encountered two locally transmitted Omicron infections (total cases are now 41). The next day, two people about 500 kilometers away in Henan province tested positive and connected to the same transmission chain. These few cases were enough to kick off the usual pattern: lockdown and mass testing.
Tianjin suspended train and bus service to Beijing and launched a second round of tests on Wednesday for all 14 million inhabitants. In Henan, however, they closed most schools and banned public gatherings, including temple fairs and other celebrations before the Lunar New Year. Several local governments in the province – which has 99 million inhabitants – have issued ordinances with more or less severe restrictions.