Covid, China reopens before the Lunar New Year

The Chinese somersault. The country that had applied zero tolerance in its policies against Covid-19 and had reversed course, reopens early. Beijing has already lifted the quarantine measures for those entering the country and reopened the border with Hong Kong, after almost three years of hard line, as it faces the worst wave of infections since the beginning of the pandemic. The lifting of the quarantine measures was welcomed with enthusiasm by the first travelers who landed in Chinese airports, and comes with the decision to downgrade the disease, for which China no longer provides daily infection data.

The entry into force of the relaxations to the zero tolerance policy towards the virus comes a few weeks after the Lunar New Year, which this year falls on January 22, and with the start of the “chunyun“, or the period of about forty days during which the Chinese move within the country to return to their places of origin, or to go on vacation with the family, during the holidays. The exodus and the counter-exodus (over two billion passengers on Chinese trains are expected in the first New Year’s Eve from 2020 without health restrictions) could trigger new waves of infections in the country, and the forecasts reflect a decidedly critical situation: the British health data group Airfinity estimated, in latest update, that since December 1 last year there have been 35.6 million infections in the country, and that the deaths have been 209 thousand (against the just over twenty officially announced).The current wave will reach its peak on January 13 next year, with 3.7 million infections per day, while the peak of deaths will occur ten days later, at 25,000 per day. The estimate of deaths by the end of April remains unchanged, at 1 .7 million.

If the peak of infections from this wave has already been reached in Beijing, hospitalizations and deaths will peak within the next two weeks, while on a national scale a new peak of infections is expected for March 3 next, when Airfinity estimated 4.2 million infections. The pressure to which the entire health system is subjected and the stress of morgues and crematoriums that followed the relaxations at national level have aroused doubts in the international community, starting with the World Health Organization, on the effective situation in the Asian country, in particular as regards hospitalizations, intensive care and data on deaths.
According to data provided by Beijing, among the strains of the virus identified in the country, however, there is no danger of the spread of new variants. Meanwhile, on Weibo, China’s most used social network, 1,120 accounts were suspended, some with millions of followers, criticizing experts who supported the relaxation of the Chinese government’s line on Covid-19. The lifting of the restrictions, which took place simultaneously with the wave of infections in the country, has prompted several countries, including Italy, to impose the mandatory swab for those entering the country from China, arousing the irritation of Beijing, which has threatened countermeasures and which has heavily criticized the decisions of governments that have decided restrictions on travelers from China in its press organs. Beijing defends the new line adopted after the anti-lockdown protests at the end of November in many Chinese cities, to which the Chinese president himself, Xi Jinpinghe allegedly made an indirect reference during his end-of-year speech, when he mentioned the diversity of visiting points within the country, emphasizing the need to build consensus.