PARIS – Forty-eight hours after the vote for the French presidential elections, Emmanuel Macron widens the gap from Marine Le Pen: fifteen points now separate the two candidates. According to the latest Ipsos poll, voting intentions in favor of the head of state increased by one point after the TV duel on Wednesday evening, to reach 57.5%, against 42.5% for the far-right leader. Almost two out of three Frenchmen (64%) predict that Macron will win, against the 16% who believe it will be the rival in Sunday’s runoff. While nearly half of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters (48%) do not choose between the two candidates, the others are more likely to side with the head of state (34%) than with the Rassemblement National candidate (18%).
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The Elabe institute has calculated that in the last week, Macron has managed to increase the percentage of melenchonists ready to vote for him by 7 points. But the president-candidate has also increased the preferences in the electorate of the right-wing candidate Valerie Pécresse (47%, +5). Macron is strong among the voters of the ecological candidate Yannick Jadot (58%, while 36% would abstain). Le Pen takes almost all the voters of Eric Zemmour (86%) but also a third of those of Pécresse (28%).
Never like this time, a strong tendency towards the “useful vote” is confirmed and not pure adherence to the candidate and his program. 43% of the French, in the Elabe sample, say they vote to block the other candidate, while for 57% it is a support vote. And on this phenomenon there is no significant difference between the potential voters of Macron (56% of support, 44% of blocking the other candidate) and those of Le Pen (58% of support, 42% of blocking).
Almost one in two French sees the leader of En Marche as more “presidential” (40% against 26% for the rival), and “competent” (38% against 26%). Conversely, almost half of the French feel that the leader of the Rassemblement National is more determined “in changing things” (45% against 19% for the rival), “courageous” (36% against 26%) and “closer to the people” ( 31% vs 20%). Macron is perceived as more arrogant (53% vs 23%) and Le Pen as more disturbing (46% vs 30%).
Two unknowns weigh on forecasts: turnout and undecided. According to Ipsos, the participation in the polls could be between 71% and 75%. An abstention rate that has not been seen for a second round of presidential elections since 1969. In a survey by Elabe, 63% of voters (stable in one week) say they are absolutely certain they will vote and 11% ( +1) is serious about doing it. The electorate of Mélenchon in the first round is the one that has the least intention of mobilizing (70%, against percentages from 86% to 92% of the other electorates). Intention to go to the polls on Sunday increases with age: 66% of under 35s are quite confident or are seriously considering going to the polls, compared to 73% of 35-64 and 82% of 65 and over. Nearly 90% of voters are confident in the choice of candidate, according to Ipsos. There remains therefore a 10%, almost 5 million French, who could change their minds until Sunday.