FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
BRUSSELS – The Twenty-seven found today, Monday May 30, “a general agreement” on the sixth package of sanctions against Russia. The preliminary agreement and at the diplomatic level provides for an embargo on oil from the sea from the end of the year onwards, with the temporary exception of that via oil pipeline. The goal of the agreement is to meet Hungary, a country very dependent on Russian crude oil. However, uncertainty still prevails over the approval of the leaders.
Von der Leyen: Low expectations for the next 48 hours
“We have worked hard on the sixth package of sanctions (…) but we are not there yet: I have low expectations of an agreement in the next 48 hours, but I think there is a possibility thereafter,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen , close to a two-day summit here in Brussels. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is also in the same vein: «I don’t think we will reach an agreement today. We will try to reach an agreement by the next summit in June. “” The proposal to leave the pipeline out is not bad, it’s a good approach – Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán commented a little earlier – but we need a guarantee that if should an accident happen to the Russian pipeline we must be able to draw from other sources, if it happens that’s okay ”. For his part, French President Emmanuel Macron noted: «I remain very cautious because there are new requests from Hungary. We will try to go on ».
On the other hand, the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Josep Borrell appeared to be more optimistic and he said he was “confident” of an agreement also with the Hungarian prime minister. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz himself said he expected “a consensus sooner or later”. European Council President Charles Michel added: “I hope we will make decisions” during this summit.
Forward-looking stances or superstitious declarations? Once the (painful) approval of the leaders has been obtained, the compromise should be finalized by the diplomatic representatives. All this comes after weeks of negotiations with Budapest which raised the problem of Hungary’s dependence on Russian oil through the Soviet-built Druzhba pipeline. On more than one occasion, the Orbán government has explained in the recent past that the embargo would cause “an economic shock”.
An exception is foreseen for some Eastern European countries
A European official noted that two-thirds of Russian oil reaches Europe by sea: “We are therefore talking about a rather large amount.” He added that the agreement “is a clear European success”. Russia exported 720,000 barrels a day of crude oil to Europe through its main pipeline in the region; in the face of volumes by sea of 1.57 million barrels per day coming from the ports on the Baltic and the Black Sea. In the next few hours, both the political approval from the Twenty-seven and the agreement on the legal details will have to arrive. The latter can be complicated to solve. On the one hand, it will be a question of offering guarantees to Hungary in the event of abrupt interruptions to Russian oil supplies and, on the other, of reassuring other European countries that the derogation granted to Budapest relating to the Druzhba pipeline will not create distortions. in the single market.