BRUSSELS – The European Commission outlined Thursday 11 November is a positive economic picture, albeit marked by “extremely high uncertainties”. Despite “growing headwinds”, the EU executive expects the eurozone economy to continue growing at a fast pace, thanks in particular to domestic demand. On the Italian front, Brussels expects that the economic situation in 2022 will record a “stable and sustained” expansion, with the help of the Recovery Fund.
Risk scenario
«The European economy is recovering strongly from the recent recession, with an expected growth rate of 5% this year – explained the vice president of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis -. But this is not the time for self-satisfaction. There are some risks. Last but not least, we need to address bottlenecks in supply chains, as well as rising energy prices that will affect many households and businesses across Europe ”.
The former Latvian prime minister warned that inflation must be monitored closely and “adjusted our policies if necessary”. In addition to the well-known risk of inflation and the interruptions in supply chains that are weighing on numerous sectors – especially in the most industrialized countries such as Italy, the Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni also notes the increase in infections from Covid-19: ” We must remain vigilant and act appropriately to ensure that these headwinds do not push the recovery off course ”.
Forecasts
We come to the forecasts of the community executive. Economic growth in the euro area is expected to be 5.0% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023. By comparison, last summer, the same Commission predicted in 2021 and 2022 growth of 4.8 and 4.5% respectively. On the inflation front, consumer prices are expected to rise by 2.4% in 2021, by 2.2% in 2022 and by 1.4% in 2023, again on an annual basis.
Net of the risks, Brussels wants to be optimistic, even if it admits that climate change and a segmentation of international trade could affect prices in the long term.