- Laura Bicker
- Asia Pacific Correspondent
The largest ever military exercise between the United States and the Philippines is coming to an end. Days before it began, Chinese forces rehearsed a mock blockade of Taiwan — a move the U.S. said was a disproportionate response. With tensions in the region, residents of some nearby islands feel stuck between two superpowers.
Life on Itbayat Island is precarious.
This tiny island of steep limestone cliffs and rolling hills at the northern tip of the Philippines sits in the middle of the Luzon Strait.
Even on a sunny day, there are big waves on this blue sea, and the small fishing boats will be pushed and tossed by the waves if they want to catch some of the islanders’ favorite flying fish.
The nearly 3,000 Ivante indigenous people, fishermen and farmers who live here have weathered earthquakes, typhoons and droughts, but now they face a new threat that has never been seen before.
Their island home is at risk of being engulfed in a conflict between the United States and China. The militaries of both countries are increasingly close to firing their guns in order to gain the upper hand in the South China Sea.
At the heart of the issue is Taiwan. China’s claim to the self-governing island is growing louder, even as the U.S. resolve to defend Taiwan appears to be strengthening.
And parts of the Bataan archipelago in the Philippines, like Ibayate and Bascou, are in the middle of a crossfire.
In the surrounding seas, they appear as just a few points on the map, but their proximity to Taiwan—Ibayat Island is only 156 kilometers (96 miles) from Taiwan—makes them both strategic allies and outnumbered enemy.
Analysts often talk about a tense confrontation between the two superpowers, but what is it like to live in a place where conflict between Beijing and Washington is on the verge of breaking out?
Ibayat can often be isolated for weeks. It does look unbreakable. The small piers are all dug out on the edge of the cliff, and you have to go down the steep steps cut out of the rock to get on the boat and go to sea.
The color of the sea water around the island is deep turquoise, so clear that you can see small fish playing among the corals. Ibayat Island feels as if it has not been touched by humans, and only the aborigines make their homes here.
Very few people here have television sets. Sending messages from house to house, or communicating during church meetings, is often more reliable than waiting for an intermittent cell phone signal.
But they also don’t need TV news or social media to tell them that turbulent relations between the United States and China are threatening the waters around them.
Now, that threat is closer than ever.
Who rules the sea?
Crouching, eyes locked on the sights of their weapons, and head-to-toe in camouflage, this is the U.S. Army’s 25th Infantry Division training on Basko Island.
They are doing guard drills when the island is invaded. This is part of the largest ever military combat exercise between the United States and the Philippines.
At sea, the mission was led by the USS Miguel Keith, while a V-22 Osprey circled the island, as locals filmed it on their mobile phones in amazement with. The mock exercise even involved delivering the rockets to the beach with an amphibious assault ship.
“Our goal in this area is to prevent conflict from happening,” said Major General Joseph Ryan, commander of the 25th Infantry Division.
“We don’t want to go to war with the People’s Republic of China. We don’t want that, we don’t desire that and we’re not provoking that. A war with the People’s Republic of China is in no one’s interest.”
However, he acknowledged that the armed forces on both sides were sending a message.
“The message is, we’re ready, we’re capable, we’re prepared. We’ve got great partners here and we mean it.”
Both sides are definitely arming themselves; so is Asia as a whole.
China is the region’s largest spender on new military hardware, with an all-time defense budget this year of about $224 billion.
On the other hand, the United States has been actively showing off its capabilities, conducting more military exercises with its allies in the region than ever before.
For Washington, this is not only about showing off shiny new weapons, but also about allies. The White House is sending missions to Asia more frequently than before, hoping to unite a strong alliance against China. This includes the Philippines, where geographic location is an asset in itself.
“Things are heating up,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos acknowledged in an interview with local radio ahead of his trip to Washington this week.
He has decided to take a more assertive stance on China than his predecessors, and that includes ordering more patrols by the Navy and Coast Guard.
fishermen on the front line
But what might otherwise be peaceful patrols could turn into conflict in the South China Sea, and even fishing could spark a geopolitical crisis.
Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, despite an international court ruling that those claims have no legal basis – and trillions of dollars of trade flows through the strategic waters each year.
“Chinese fishermen used to harass us,” said Cyrus Malupa, 59. As he spoke, he hooked a fishing line and threw it into the sea.
“We reported to the government that they set up a military base on Yami Island in the north. Now we have Philippine marines there,” he said.
In March, the Philippine Navy began a month-long mission to the uninhabited island, describing it as the country’s “first line of defense” and hoisting the Philippine flag on its highest point. It was a small but bold act of sovereignty.
For someone like Cyrus, who spends many days in a small boat hoping to catch enough tuna to sell in the local market, the geopolitical dispute is personal. It’s a breadwinner thing.
For more than a decade, hundreds of Filipino fishermen have reported being kicked out of their traditional fishing areas in the South China Sea—particularly in the disputed waters around the Spratly Islands, known in China as the Spratly Islands.
“We don’t have as much to gain because the poachers have more advanced technology,” Cyrus said from the boat bouncing in the white water.
“We locals fish with old methods, like lines and small nets, but the poachers have more advanced techniques, so they can catch as much as they want.”
Manila has lodged nearly 200 diplomatic protests over Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea – where Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei also have overlapping claims.
“It’s natural to worry because any conflict affects our lives,” said Victor Gonzales, 51.
“First of all, we are concerned about the safety of our lives and the possibility of people fleeing from Taiwan to come to us and we have limited resources.”
Like most people on Itbayat, Victor farms when the seas are rough and fishes when the seas are good. Crops are cultivated by hand, without the help of machines or chemical fertilizers. Instead, farmers rotate sweet potatoes, rice, corn, garlic and onions. One farmer can feed 25 families.
“We need to protect our resources because this is our livelihood and we have no other way. We want to be able to pass something on to the next generation,” Victor said.
The level of concern is so great that local government officials in Batanes Province announced to the media in December last year that they would guarantee food supplies and prepare for possible conflicts.
Armed and Allies
On Santa Ana’s beach, the no-entry sign near the Camilo Osias naval base is hand-painted and hard to read—and is all but blocked by dozens of green fishing boats moored in the sand. It was a Sunday, and some of those who would normally go to sea were a little tipsy from the Filipino gin.
Several buffaloes crouched in the shadows, flicking away small birds on their backs with their tails. Nearby, women wash their week’s worth of laundry in large tanks—suds spattering the curb.
Santa Ana is a laid-back town on the northern tip of Luzon. Around the small Philippine naval base, there isn’t much movement. The base is so tucked away on the beach that you’d hardly know it’s there—unless you spot the “Do Not Enter” sign. The key point is that it has an airstrip that allows the US military to enter the Taiwan Strait.
“It’s not really a base, I’d say it’s more of a scout camp,” said Manuel Mamba, the governor of Cagayan province.
It is one of four new bases in the Philippines that the U.S. military is allowed to use as the Philippine-U.S. military alliance strengthens. The two new locations are located in the northern province of Cagayan, directly facing Taiwan.
“It’s not for me to decide, it’s not for our people to decide. It’s something our country’s leaders decide and we abide by. We may not agree, but it’s really because we don’t want war,” Mamba said.
“We’re poor, and we have our own local problems. That’s why anything that creates uncertainty is a bigger problem for all of us.”
Mamba worries that, with two U.S. military bases in his province, it will become a target. He had hoped to bring Chinese tourists here, or build a new international airport. Now he fears that Beijing may turn our backs on the Philippines when it needs to do business with China most.
“It’s difficult for us to choose between the neighbors who have never been our enemies, and the allies who have been with us through so much. If they can come together, if they can talk, If there is a middle ground where they can agree.”
Mamba’s comments reflect growing unease in many parts of Asia. Will they be forced to choose between America, their longtime ally, and China, their largest trading partner?
Back in Basco, the capital of the tiny Philippine province of Batanes, 21-year-old Ave Marie Garcia is helping tourists book round-trip flights to her hometown of Ibayat.
She didn’t follow the news all the time – but it was impossible for her not to hear about the latest military exercises.
“I don’t think the U.S. is going to start a war with these military exercises. The U.S. is just trying to help the Philippine military protect the island and let China know that the area is protected,” she said, jumping on her small motorcycle, Take us to see her favorite scenery and beaches.
Ivy is one of 11 children in the family. Her mother, like many Filipinos, works overseas and sends money home.
Their ancestral home, a traditional stone house that stood for centuries, was in ruins after an earthquake in 2019—a reminder that life is fragile here.
According to Ivy herself, she and her siblings were raised by a strict grandmother. But Ivy has a little rebellion in her bones. The ends of her long hair were dyed blonde.
However, she is an Ivante at heart. Her desire is to preserve her ancestral way of life, even if that means saying no to America. She believes that everything has a limit.
“I’m worried about the future – our future. I hope they don’t build US military facilities here, I just want everything to stay the way it is. They are allowed to come to this place, but they shouldn’t be allowed to build anything here. We’ve been invaded. It scares me to think about it.”
People here feel so far removed from politics and those belligerent propaganda, they try not to dwell on what might happen, but enjoy what they have now.
“Life on the island is the simple life,” Ivy said. Every day, she and her family pray that this will always be the case.