Finland must apply for NATO membership “without delay”. There were few doubts about the historical step of the Scandinavian country, but the joint note released by President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin dispelled them.
“We hope – the leaders add – that the necessary steps to formalize this decision will be taken quickly in the next few days”. A hope that, rather than being dictated by real uncertainty about the go-ahead of Parliament, appears more a formal caution, perhaps dictated by the opportunity to also have neighboring Sweden on board, where the Social Democratic Party in power could express itself in this sense Sunday 15 May and the government called an extraordinary meeting on Monday 16 to take a formal decision on the NATO membership application.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and fears for national security therefore trigger, in a very short time, dynamics that seemed unthinkable, but now almost inevitable in light of the change also in public opinion: in Finland, according to the latest poll, the support for joining the Alliance rose to 76% against the average 25% recorded in previous years; and even in Sweden the majority of the population is now in favor.
Politics in Helsinki therefore acted accordingly. In March, the government launched a review of its security policy – which prior to the invasion of Ukraine had favored neutrality and good neighborliness with its bulky Russian neighbor – and delivered a “white paper” to the discussion of the Parliament (called to take the final decision), then initiated meetings with all parliamentary groups to ensure unanimous support.
In the meantime, the president and premier have begun a round of international meetings – on the last Wednesday with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson – to prepare the way for the approval of entry into the Alliance (which will have to be ratified by all 30 NATO countries) and also guarantee the support that Finland will need in the “gray zone” between the submission of the application and the actual entry, when Article 5 of the Treaty is in force, which commits the Alliance to intervene alongside an attacked member country.