Image source,US Air Force
In 2020, the U.S. tested the AGM-183A hypersonic missile on a B-52 bomber that took off from California.
China and Russia are increasingly seen as major security threats to the West, and Sino-Russian military cooperation is seen as a major challenge to the United States‘ global military power.
BBC security reporter Frank Gardner recently analyzed the security challenges facing the West in his report on the future of warfare.
In his report, he predicted how the war between major powers might unfold in the future, and what are the potential hot spots? Can the West meet the challenges it faces?
In 2021, the British defense and security policy has undergone a fundamental adjustment, increasing investment in digital technology, artificial intelligence and network technology. The number of traditional equipment and troops has been reduced.
At the same time, Russian troops gathered on the Ukrainian border, Moscow asked NATO to withdraw troops from some member states; and China became more and more high-profile on the Taiwan issue, even saying that it would not hesitate to use force to complete its reunification.
Small-scale regional conflicts occur from time to time. Ethiopia is undergoing a civil war; the number of deaths caused by the separatist conflict in Ukraine that broke out in 2014 has exceeded 14,000; the chaos in Syria continues; and in parts of Africa, the Islamic State organization has frequent activities.
Russia and China form an alliance
Recently, the “Wall Street Journal” published an analysis article stating that military cooperation between Russia and China has become a major challenge facing the United States.
The article pointed out that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping conducted ambitious joint exercises in China in the summer. Russia and China have conducted extensive cooperation in air, seabed, and hypersonic weapon technology. Military analysts believe that this shows that Russia and China are strengthening military alliances.
US officials and military experts said that it is difficult to figure out the current level of military cooperation between Russia and China, because both sides are strictly controlling relevant information, and it is difficult to see the truth of their cooperation from the outside.
Image source,Getty Images
Military cooperation between Russia and China is seen as the main challenge facing the United States
The “Worldwide Threat Assessment” declassified by the U.S. intelligence community in 2019 classified China and Russia together as a regional threat, and said that “it is expected that they (Russia and China) will join forces to counter the goals of the United States.”
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States now points out that the current degree of alliance between Beijing and Moscow has exceeded any time in the past 60 years.
Michael Kofman, director of the CNA Russian Research Department of the US Think Tank Naval Research Center, said that Russia and China pose different threats. But because they cooperate, the two threats are connected.
China and Russia’s military technology catching up
Michele Flournoy served as the policy director of U.S. strategy at the Pentagon during the terms of Presidents Clinton and Obama. She said in a BBC report that the focus of the West on the Middle East in the past 20 years has enabled its opponents to achieve a substantial military catch-up.
She said, “We are at a strategic turning point. The United States, the United Kingdom, and our allies are bidding farewell to the past 20 years. During that period (the West) focused on counter-terrorism and combating insurgency, fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and now I look up and realize We are in the midst of very severe competition among major powers.”
Michele Flornoy said that when the West is focusing on the broader Middle East issue, these countries have been learning Western methods of warfare. They began to invest heavily in a series of new technologies.
BBC reporter Gardner explained that Michel Fronoy was referring to Russia and China.
The British government’s defense report also described Russia and China as “serious threats” to the West and long-term “strategic opponents”.
Image source,US Air Force
The U.S. Air Force conducted a cyber warfare exercise at Warfield Air National Guard base in 2017
The future war is “already in sight”
What will the future great power war be like? BBC security reporter Gardner made analysis and predictions.
First of all, he believes that the future war has actually become a reality. Many aspects of the main conflicts between the West and Russia or China are actually being developed, rehearsed and even deployed.
On November 16 last year, Russia conducted a space missile test and destroyed Russia’s own satellites. China tested an advanced hypersonic missile last summer, which can fly at multiple times the speed of sound. In addition, disruptive and destructive cyber attacks have become a frequent phenomenon, and this so-called “low-limit war” has begun.
Michel Fronoy believes that Russia and China have invested heavily in the development of new technologies when the West focused on the Middle East. Most of their investment is concentrated on network technology activities, such as disruptive attacks aimed at disrupting the operation of Western societies, affecting elections, and stealing sensitive data. These activities are far from reaching the level of war, and the perpetrators can deny that they have participated in many activities.
Network and information technology confrontation
What happens if the tension between the West and Russia, the United States, and China develops into confrontation amid the tensions in Ukraine and the confrontation across the Taiwan Strait?
Meia Nouwens, a researcher on China’s defense policy and military modernization at the Institute of International Strategic Issues, believes that it will be a fast-paced change and will rely heavily on activities in the information field.
He said that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has established a new structure called the Strategic Support Force, which is responsible for space warfare and electronic warfare, as well as network activity capabilities.
Simply put, that kind of war means that the belligerents launch large-scale cyber attacks on each other. They all try to “blind” each other’s communications, including satellites, and even cut important submarine cables.
Image source,Getty Images
In 2019, China demonstrated the hypersonic missile Dongfeng-17 in the National Day parade
Franz-Stefan Gady, an expert on future warfare at the Institute of International Strategic Studies in London, told the BBC reporter that for ordinary people who are immersive, it means that they can’t use the phone or gas station. Without fuel, food delivery fell into chaos.
War escalation and artificial intelligence
The biggest military risk is unplanned escalation. If one party’s satellite connection is interrupted, the decision makers in the underground command post will not be able to understand the real situation outside, and it will be difficult to decide how to act next.
Mea Novens believes that in that case, the decision-maker’s choice is either to “downgrade” or “upgrade”, which involves a great risk of escalation.
Another major factor in future wars is artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence can greatly shorten the decision-making and reaction time of commanders, allowing them to process information faster.
Michel Fronoy believes that the United States is superior to its potential rivals in terms of quality in artificial intelligence, but the West lags behind the massive Chinese People’s Liberation Army in terms of quantity.
Hypersonic missile
One area where the West lags behind Russia and China is hypersonic missiles, which are flying vehicles capable of flying at 5-27 times the speed of sound and carrying conventional or nuclear warheads.
Russia announced that it has successfully tested the “Zircon” hypersonic cruise missile and said that this missile can penetrate any existing anti-missile system in the world.
China debuted the Dongfeng-17 missile during the National Day parade in 2019. This hypersonic vehicle can change orbit in the atmosphere in an unpredictable way for the enemy, greatly increasing the difficulty of interception.
Image source,US Air Force
The U.S. Air Force tested the AGM-183A hypersonic missile in California in 2020
In recent years, the tests conducted by the United States in this regard have not progressed smoothly. BBC defense reporter Gardner believes that China now possesses these hypersonic weapons. Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, whether the United States participates in the war has become a question for the United States to think twice.
The most dangerous in the next 5 to 10 years
The Gardner report also said that in accordance with the adjustment of the British defense and security policy in 2021, the United Kingdom will increase its investment in new technologies while reducing its conventional forces. But Franz Stephen Gadi of the Institute of International Strategic Studies in London believes that it will take 20 years for new technology investment to be effective, and there will be a worrying gap before that. Therefore, the next 5-10 years may be the most severe challenge for Western security.
But Michel Fronoy said that the future is not dark. She believes that the way out for the West lies in strengthening consultation and cooperation with allies and investing in the right fields. In this way, wars between major powers can be effectively curbed.
“We should be able to achieve our goals and keep the Indo-Pacific region free, open and prosperous in the future,” she said.