SThe meeting of the Group of Seven – the 47th in the history of this assembly – scheduled for 26 to 28 June in the Bavarian Alps will be under the banner of unity, true or presumed, of the western front. The protagonists will want to reaffirm their cohesion, in a very uncertain context, however, in which the continuing war of Russia in Ukraine and the looming economic recession are putting the stability of Western allies to the test.
The landlord will be the German Chancellor. Olaf Scholz warned this week that Western support for Ukraine will require “perseverance” as “we are still a long way off” from peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev. Begun on February 24, the invasion has lasted for four months. The heads of state and government of the most industrialized countries will gather at Schloss Elmau, not far from Garmisch, for a three-day meeting that will be followed by a NATO summit in Madrid.
Doubts about sanctions on Russia
The West agreed to impose sanctions against Moscow (the G7 could decide a ban on the import of Russian gold). However, two aspects emerged. First of all, there is a growing fear in the world that the measures are weighing on the economy. The feeling is reinforced by the subtle Russian choice to reduce gas supplies to Europe. In this perspective, participation in the G7 of India, Senegal and South Africa is not trivial; the three countries abstained on the occasion of a UN resolution condemning Moscow.
Secondly, the impression is strengthened that these same measures have a limited impact on Russia after all. Of course, the International Monetary Fund estimates a recession of 8.5% in 2022. At the same time, the ruble has appreciated on the markets, at the latest in the last seven years. According to data published by the Milan ISPI, Chinese imports of Russian oil have risen in these four months from 0.6 to 1.2 million barrels per day. India, meanwhile, has become a Russian customer from scratch.
Michel: There will be discussion on the ceiling on the price of oil
The United States has suggested to its allies some form of ceiling on the price of crude oil, in order to penalize Russia (see Il Sole 24 ore of 22 June). The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, cautiously commented on Friday in Brussels: the proposal “of a ceiling on the price of oil will be a topic of discussion (…) We need to understand if we are in tune” with Washington “and if this idea is appropriate to achieve our common goals “.