- James Gallagher
- BBC Health and Science reporter
Image source,Getty Images
There are two big questions here: How fast does Omi Keron spread? How deep is the disease?
After understanding these, you will be able to understand the threats and challenges posed by Omi Keron.
Scientists all over the world are trying to answer these questions, hoping to give us some hints so that we can know what will happen in the future.
Immunity is crucial, and Omi Keron did not turn the clock back to the beginning of the pandemic. But uncertainty covers everything, and it may take several weeks to get a definitive answer.
How fast is it spreading?
The answer is, it seems to be fast.
This is also true for places with high levels of immunity, whether it is places that have been vaccinated on a large scale or places that have experienced outbreaks in the past.
The epidemic caused by Delta in South Africa has ended, with an average of less than 300 cases per day a month ago. The number of infections caused by Omi Keron has exceeded 10,000, which seems to be driving the fourth wave of epidemics.
Britain has also witnessed the proliferation of Ome Keron.
Scientists have been able to track them through the unusual trail that Omi Keron left in the new crown test. This process is called S-gene shedding, and in late November, only 0.1% of the test results showed them. It has now exceeded 5%, which means that there are approximately 2500 cases per day.
This method of measuring the propagation velocity of Omi Keron is inaccurate because the input of cases and target detection will distort the data.
But this method can form a rapid assessment without having to wait for a comprehensive genetic analysis of the virus sample.
These early calculations indicate that in the United Kingdom, Omi Keron’s cases may double about every three days. There is still uncertainty.
This is faster than Delta’s spread in the UK, and it is comparable to the spread of the original virus in early 2020 when we were not immune.
Part of the reason may be that the time between contracting the virus and spreading it to others has shortened.
The power of exponential growth shows that a small amount can quickly become larger, like snowballing credit card debt. If the number of cases doubles every three days, by the end of the month, the approximately 2500 cases per day may surge to more than 100,000.
Why is there a variant of the new crown virus
Will I get infected? Will you get sick?
So, what does it mean to me if a wave of Omi Keron epidemic comes?
Since scientists first saw Omi Keron’s mutation list, people have been worried that it will reduce the effectiveness of the vaccine. This virus looks very different from the original virus used to make the vaccine.
We now have the first data to show how immunity is maintained from experiments using neutralizing antibodies. These antibodies stick to the surface of the coronavirus, preventing it from infecting cells.
Studies have shown that for people who have been vaccinated twice, the ability of antibodies to clear the virus is reduced by 20 to 40 times.
It is too early to say what laboratory research means in the real world, but the reduction of protective antibodies indicates a higher risk of infection with Omi Keron.
But the good news is here. Pfizer Biotech’s experiments show that the third dose of vaccination can greatly increase the level of neutralizing antibodies. They think that the effect of the three-targeted Omega is as good as the two-targeted original variant, and this result is very good.
Professor Eleanor Riley of the University of Edinburgh called the data “reassuring” because “it shows that the intensified injection should provide a high level of protection against infections and serious diseases” .
Regarding the extent of the illness after being infected with Omi Keron, we still have no clear answer.
But even if you have only received two doses of the vaccine, or have been infected in the past, your immune system may still be better at fighting the new coronavirus than when the pandemic began.
Neutralizing antibodies are an important part of the body’s defenses and seem to be hit without a booster needle, but they are only part of the huge and complex immune system.
T cells start to work after the body is infected. They can “see” more viruses instead of neutralizing antibodies, so they are less likely to be avoided by new variants.
But it is also necessary to monitor who will be severe enough to be hospitalized to fully understand how serious the disease caused by Omi Keron is.
Image source,AFP
What will happen next?
There may be a wave of outbreaks caused by Omi Keron, and the vaccine may well prevent most people from getting serious illnesses.
The problem is that even if “most people” are completely fine, it does not mean that “everyone” is fine. Some people are fragile, some people’s immune systems do not respond well to vaccines, some people cannot get vaccinated, and some people choose not to get vaccinated.
The current delta virus variant has caused many people to be hospitalized for infection with the new crown virus.
A sudden new wave of epidemics may cause everyone to need treatment at the same time.
Professor Michael Tildesley of the University of Warwick said: “It brings all the possibilities together.”
He also said: “Therefore, there may be a new wave of epidemics similar to that in January. To some extent, this will lead to an increase in the number of hospitalizations.”
But he pointed out that there are still huge uncertainties in all the data.
There are no universally consistent figures regarding the speed, severity, and resistance to vaccines of Omi Keron virus. People have completely different views on the situation in the next few weeks, depending on which number is substituted into the mathematical model.
“Any situation is possible. For example, there is no new wave of epidemics, there is no need to worry about an epidemic, or even extreme fear; this is the problem caused by huge uncertainty.”