With 90 days to go until the presidential elections in Venezuela, many doubts remain about how the process will unfold. Most polls give the advantage to any opponent of Nicolás Maduro, who is reluctant to a scenario in which he ends up losing. The economic, political, and social crisis in Venezuela has weakened the popularity inherited by Maduro when he succeeded Hugo Chávez in 2013. According to the latest study by the firm Meganalisis, the voting intention for the current president does not exceed 13 percent in an election.
Now that the opposition has rallied behind a unitary candidate, the political situation in Venezuela is showing signs of improvement. Political analyst Ramón Muchacho, a former Venezuelan mayor in exile, believes that the support of the international community has played a crucial role in allowing the primaries to take place and uniting the opposition forces. He emphasizes the importance of figures like Gustavo Petro and Lula Da Silva in ensuring stability in the region, as the country faces the threat of continued migration under Maduro’s regime.
Despite the progress made, there are still obstacles and challenges ahead for the Unity candidate. Muchacho compares the situation in Venezuela to that of Nicaragua and Cuba, where leaders like Daniel Ortega and Díaz Canel have imposed traps to maintain their power. It will be essential for the international community to continue supporting the Venezuelan opposition and for the Unity candidate to navigate these challenges.
The accusations of crimes against humanity against Maduro also loom over the election process. Although he will have to answer for these crimes in court, there must be guarantees that he will have a fair trial and the opportunity to defend himself. The uncertainty surrounding the elections in Venezuela reflects the lack of democracy in the country, as anything can happen leading up to the presidential race in January.
The outcome of the US presidential elections in January will also have an impact on the Venezuelan situation, as the policy towards Venezuela may shift depending on the administration. The potential repercussions of a Biden II or Trump II presidency are uncertain, especially considering the volatile nature of former President Trump’s foreign policy decisions. There are suspicions that Maduro may be seeking to establish a “Back Channel” with the Trump administration through Russian lobbying, further complicating the geopolitical dynamics in the region.
As the countdown to the Venezuelan elections continues, the international community, opposition forces, and candidates must navigate through a complex web of challenges and uncertainties to ensure a fair and democratic process for the Venezuelan people.