“Putin really risks a coup, but if he survives politically, he will be put in a position of weakness”. Leon Panetta makes this prediction from firsthand knowledge, having been head of the CIA and the Pentagon when Biden was vice president.
Part of the counter-offensive is underway: can the Ukrainians win?
“We have to be cautious. There is no doubt that they are switching from a defensive to an offensive approach. If that leads to a military victory, or more likely to a negotiated solution, it will strengthen their hand anyway.”
How should we help them?
“By remaining united in support, which can be given in three areas: additional sanctions, weapons, more NATO presence in countries close to Russia”.
La no fly zone?
“These decisions must be made on the basis of Ukrainian needs. It is possible that the creation of a corridor will be needed to provide assistance.”
Doesn’t putting Putin in the corner push him to use chemical or nuclear weapons?
“I understand the concerns, but I see no alternative to ensuring he understands that he has made a terrible strategic mistake, is paying a high price, and the choice at his disposal is between a broader war or some negotiated solution. That’s where you want to put it, in the hope he makes the right decision to save her neck. “
If he used chemical or nuclear weapons, should the answer be military?
“I am pleased that the White House is using the Tiger team to review all options. It is very important to understand that if Russia makes this terrible decision, we will have to respond.”
Is negotiation still possible?
“Putin is a bully, but not stupid. If he understands that he has to choose between surviving as a leader, or putting himself and the country at risk of annihilation, he will make the pragmatic choice that includes a negotiated solution.”
Which?
“There are possibilities. One perhaps recognizes Crimea as something that Russia can maintain, the referendum in the other disputed areas, a declaration of neutrality by Zelensky with guarantees of safety from future Russian attacks.”
Wouldn’t that be a victory for Putin?
“He would paint it like this, but it will still be interpreted as a defeat.”
Is it true that in the intelligence services there are those who are plotting to depose him?
“Under normal circumstances it would be difficult to reach the conclusion that they are willing to take a coup, but considering the situation in Russia, the dead soldiers, the inability of the army, perhaps there is enough resentment. It is clear, however, that if Putin stays, it will be a weakened leader. That’s the most likely outcome. “
Has your former Russian colleague Shoigu disappeared?
“The military has serious morale problems. They have lost several generals, their chain of command and logistics are not functioning and the military has shown not to be well trained. We thought they were better.”
Is Russia challenging the world order?
“Everything Putin does is the exact opposite of what he wants. NATO is stronger, strengthened on the Russian borders. If he wants to go back to discussing security, the war must end.”
Biden called him a war criminal: is it still possible to work with him?
“It’s not impossible, but it’s hard to believe he’ll be the same as before. His people will put him in a weakened position.”
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