As of: May 9, 2024 7:00 p.m
The party structure in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is in disarray. According to a representative survey by infratest dimap on behalf of NDR, the AfD remains the strongest force despite losses, the Left and the FDP have to fear that they will remain in the state parliament, the BSW would immediately reach ten percent in a state election next Sunday.
A good four weeks before the local and European elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, there is a shake-up in the party landscape. The AfD’s soaring has stopped for the time being. In the Sunday question about the political mood, the party currently has 26 percent, which is six points less than in the last survey from September 2023.
Krah scandal hits AfD
The scandals of the past few weeks, for example surrounding the top candidate for the European elections, Maximilian Krah, seem to be affecting the party. Due to the increasing proximity of the entire party to right-wing extremist positions and the subsequent ban debate, support may also have decreased. Another point for the dip in the survey is the strengthening of the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).
SPD loses compared to last survey
However, the AfD remains by far the strongest force, it is almost ten points above its state election result from 2021. Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig’s SPD has once again fallen in favor with voters. The Social Democrats only got 21 percent, two points less than in the last survey. The ruling party’s state election result would therefore be almost halved in the middle of the legislative period. Unlike the SPD, the CDU is making gains under its new state chairman Daniel Peters. The Christian Democrats also got 21 percent, putting them on a par with the SPD.
CDU is gaining ground
Apparently the tougher tone in migration policy seems to be paying off, as is the general shift towards more conservative positions. The CDU would be almost eight points above its state election result.
Left continues to slip
The numbers are bitter for the smaller government partner Die Linke. The party continues its downward trend. According to the survey, it has slipped to five percent and for the first time has to fear that it will remain in the state parliament. According to the survey, the party is hardly noticeable from the voters’ perspective in the coalition with the SPD. Only nine percent of those surveyed believe that the Left is the more assertive government partner, while 64 percent attribute this role to the SPD.
Greens stable, FDP below three percent
According to the survey, the Greens are holding steady. As in September 2023, they are again at eight percent – that would be slightly above their election result from 2021. For the FDP, on the other hand, there are signs of a renewed fight for parliamentary survival. Infratest dimap no longer lists the party individually. This means that pollsters place them at less than three percent. The gap to the threshold clause is therefore even greater than in September 2023.
Wagenknecht party BSW ahead of the left
The clear winner is the new BSW. Although the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance has not yet founded its own regional association, it would immediately reach ten percent. That would make it twice as strong as the left. The BSW would be the fourth strongest force in the state parliament. A majority of those surveyed – 47 percent – think the new party formation is “rather good”, while 35 percent think it is “rather bad”. The rest do not provide any information.
Governing coalition without a majority
The new numbers would make it even more difficult to form a government in Schwerin. With a total of 26 percent, the red-red coalition has no majority of its own. Because participation by the AfD is out of the question for them, the SPD could only govern together with the CDU in a three-party coalition. For example, a red-black-green or a red-black-red alliance would be possible. A four-party coalition made up of the SPD, the Left, the Greens and the BSW, however, would not have the necessary majority.
Dissatisfaction with the red-red state government
According to the survey, the current red-red coalition achieved slightly improved results at half-time, but a majority of voters are still dissatisfied with the work of the SPD and the Left. Only 40 percent give the alliance good marks. This means that the Schwesig government has the third worst value nationwide. Only in Berlin and Thuringia are people more dissatisfied with their state government.
Slight improvement for Prime Minister
Schwesig’s official bonus as Prime Minister is also suffering. 49 percent are satisfied with their work, 47 percent are not. The rest do not provide any information. Compared to the autumn survey, the values have improved slightly. However, her presidency of the Federal Council, which is putting the State Chancellery in the limelight, hardly seems to be paying off. Schwesig is in one of the lower places in the ranking of her colleagues in eleven other federal states. Only in Berlin and North Rhine-Westphalia are the heads of government rated worse. There are no current comparative values available for Bremen and Saxony-Anhalt, Hesse and Bavaria.
Migration is the most important issue
From the voters’ perspective, the biggest task for politics in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania remains the issue of “immigration/refugees”. For 28 percent, it is the most important problem, but that is two points less than in September 2023. In second place is “education/school” with 23 percent and “unemployment” with 17 percent. What is striking is that people are apparently less concerned about “energy policy/energy transition”. Only seven percent name this topic as the most important problem, which is seven points less than last September. At that time the topic ranked in the top three places. The current figures seem to be evidence that the energy crisis feared by many has been averted.
The methodology of the MV trend in May 2024
The survey was carried out by infratest dimap on behalf of the NDR in MV in the survey period from May 2nd to 7th, 2024.
A total of 1,177 eligible voters in MV were surveyed using random telephone and online surveys (691 telephone interviews, 486 online interviews). The weighting was based on sociodemographic characteristics and recall of voting behavior. Since more than 1,000 people across all age groups were surveyed, the election survey can be classified as representative. The fluctuation range is two percentage points for a share value of ten percent and five percentage points for a share value of 50 percent.
Further information
Elections will take place on June 9th. Here you will find explanations, interesting facts and all the news about the elections. more
Where is the problem? Who has what suggestions for improvement and might therefore stand for election themselves? more
According to an NDR survey, Prime Minister Schwesig’s SPD slipped to second place by a clear margin. more
This topic in the program:
NDR 1 Radio MV | News from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | May 9, 2024 | 7:00 p.m