The Electoral Code in El Salvador is set to undergo significant changes, potentially resulting in a less pluralistic representation of the country’s political landscape. In addition to reducing the number of deputies to be elected by 2024, the distribution method for seats will also change, favoring larger parties and reducing the possibility of more diverse legislative representation.
The move to implement the D’Hondt method for seat distribution comes as part of a larger electoral process that will see the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly reduced from 84 to 60. This decision, made by the Legislative Assembly dominated by Nuevas Ideas, has sparked concerns among experts and observers.
Specialists in electoral issues have pointed out that the D’Hondt system is well-known for granting over-representation to the party with the most votes, essentially tipping the balance of power in favor of larger political entities. The change in the formula is seen as a deliberate attempt to consolidate control of the Assembly, as Nuevas Ideas would stand to benefit significantly from this new method, having obtained 64% of the votes in the 2021 elections.
The stark contrast between the potential distribution of seats under the D’Hondt formula, where Nuevas Ideas would receive 57 out of 60 seats, and the previous Hare method, which awarded them 65% of seats, has raised concerns about the fairness and plurality of the electoral system.
The impact of these changes is especially worrying when considering the results of a recent survey conducted by the electoral observation consortium, “Observa El Salvador 2024.” With the D’Hondt system in place, it is projected that Nuevas Ideas would secure 57 seats, leaving only two for the ARENA party and one for the PDC. Meanwhile, under a formula of quotients and residuals, the distribution would be more balanced, with Nuevas Ideas obtaining 48 seats, and other parties sharing the remainder.
Experts warn that the changes in the electoral formula and the reduction of deputies have the potential to weaken smaller political parties and cement the dominance of larger ones. The use of the D’Hondt formula is seen as a deliberate move to favor larger parties, further exacerbating the challenges faced by smaller political entities.
The implementation of the D’Hondt method and the reduction of seats have raised questions about the fairness and pluralism of the upcoming elections in February 2024. The impact of these changes on the political landscape of El Salvador remains to be seen.