[Epoch Times December 16, 2021](Epoch Times reporter Tian Rui comprehensive report) The epidemic prediction model cited by NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard has been refuted by epidemiologists.
On the day when NSW unvaccinated those who were not vaccinated, Hazard quoted the prediction results of the University of New South Wales’s model as saying that by the end of January next year, the number of new Covid-19 (Chinese Communist Party virus) confirmed cases in NSW may be as high as 25,000.
However, some epidemiologists believe that the data cited by the Ministry of Health seriously overestimates the number of cases, and they doubt that the epidemic in NSW will reach such a serious level.
Catherine Bennett, an epidemiologist at Deakin University, told NCA News that the model cited by the NSW Department of Health is based on the assumption that no anti-epidemic measures are taken and the virus can circulate freely, but it has never been a coexistence plan with the virus. a part of.
For example, she said that Sydney’s previous daily average number of new cases was as high as 1,268, when the number of hospitalizations was 242. If the number of daily increase of cases increases by 20 times, it means that the number of hospitalized patients will be 4,000, which is higher than the vaccination rate. 90% of it is unlikely to happen today.
Infectious disease expert Peter Collignon said that in the first year of the outbreak, similar models predicted that Australia’s death toll would reach 25,000 within a year, but these did not happen after a series of epidemic prevention measures were implemented.
On December 16, the NSW Department of Health notified 1742 new confirmed cases. This is the first time that the number of daily increases in NSW has surpassed Victoria in several months. Despite the large increase in the number of confirmed cases, the current hospitalization rate in NSW remains stable, with 192 people receiving treatment in hospitals, of which 26 are in the intensive care unit.
A party scene in central Sydney has become the latest high-risk venue. At least 97 related confirmed cases were found at the On Repeat: Taylor Swift Red Party held at the Metro Theatre on George Street in the heart of Sydney.
Those who attended this party after 9 o’clock on December 10 (last Friday) are considered close contacts, and they and those who live with them need to be immediately isolated for 7 days. At that time, NSW had not yet unblocked those who had not been vaccinated, and bars, theaters and other entertainment venues only accepted people who had already received two shots of the vaccine. ◇
Editor in charge: Zong Minqing
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