Dmitri Peskov, the spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, announced on Monday that Russia would not renew the deal on Ukrainian wheat, which expired today. The agreement had so far served to allow Ukrainian ships to safely cross the Black Sea and export wheat and other grains despite the war. It had been signed in July 2022 by Ukraine and Russia, with the mediation of the UN and in particular Turkey, and had already been renewed twice. Several countries of the world depend on the export of Ukrainian grain and cereals, which also has a big influence on the Ukrainian economy itself.
On Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had been instrumental in reaching the initial deal, gave assurances that the deal would be renewed after speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The situation may have changed after Russian authorities accused Ukraine on Monday morning of attacking the bridge linking Crimea to Russia: Peskov assured that the non-renewal of the agreement had nothing to do with the alleged attack on the bridge, despite the fact that his announcement came a few hours after the accusations against Ukraine and after the renewal had also been given as very likely by official sources, such as Erdogan himself.
Peskov justified Russia’s withdrawal with the fact that in recent months some terms of the agreement that Russia had requested to guarantee the renewal would not be implemented. Peskov did not clarify what the country would like to achieve, but the Russian government had in the past argued that Ukrainian grain and cereals were not being supplied to poorer countries, as stipulated in the deal, and had repeatedly complained that countries’ sanctions Westerners were limiting Russian agricultural exports. Even before the latest renewal, last May, Russia had threatened to interrupt the agreement to obtain more advantageous conditions.
Peskov’s statements should in any case be taken with some caution: the Russian government has been lying with a certain regularity since the beginning of the war, both for internal propaganda reasons and to influence the progress of the war itself. At the moment, however, it is not clear whether Russia wants to obtain better conditions from the agreement or whether it will prove completely unavailable even to new negotiations. Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Ministry has announced that it has communicated to the UN and Turkey that the country is against the extension of the agreement.
Ukraine is one of the world‘s leading exporters of grain and other foodstuffs. In the first months of the Russian invasion, exports had been blocked, causing a very serious food crisis in various countries of the world, especially in the Middle East and Africa. The blockade in the early months of the war had also rotted huge quantities of wheat and other grains that were ready for export.
Despite initial skepticism, the agreement had held up and had so far been considered a success: probably the only example of cooperation between Russia and Ukraine in recent months, despite the fact that the negotiations to stipulate and renew it had been rather difficult from time to time.