Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on Saturday evening that the Wagner group of Russian mercenaries, which he commanded, had fully occupied the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, which has been disputed between Russians and Ukrainians for months. Shortly thereafter, the Russian Defense Ministry also announced the occupation of Bakhmut, saying that the town had been “liberated”. At the moment the Ukrainian authorities deny having completely lost Bakhmut, but the situation in the town is now compromised: for over a month the Ukrainian army has controlled only a few buildings which it defends with difficulty.
It is not yet clear whether these latter buildings were also captured by Russia, and therefore whether Ukrainian forces were forced out of Bakhmut altogether. At the G7 meeting in Hiroshima, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky answered a question in which he was asked whether Bakhmut had been conquered completely by the Russians and said: «I think not», but then added: «You have to understand that [a Bakhmut] there is nothing left… It’s a pity, it’s a tragedy, but today Bakhmut is only in our hearts». According to Ukrainian officials, however, Zelensky was not referring to the loss of Bakhmut, but to the fact that the town has now been completely destroyed by months of extremely violent fighting.
In any case, the conquest of the last remaining buildings would have a mostly symbolic value for Russia: Bakhmut has never had a particular military and strategic interest, and the fact that the Russian and Ukrainian armies have been clashing there for months, with enormous losses depends above all on the will of the two governments not to cede a territory which over time has taken on more of a political value. For the Wagner group and its leader Prigozhin, the conquest of Bakhmut is an essential objective, while Zelensky in the past had defined the town as a “fortress” for Ukrainian morale.
– Read also: What is the battle of Bakhmut for
The possible Russian occupation of Bakhmut will hardly lay the foundations for further conquests of the Russian army. There are still many uncertainties in this regard, but the new Ukrainian counter-offensive could begin in the coming weeks, and the Russians risk finding themselves on the defensive shortly.
Furthermore, although Bakhmut’s center is firmly in Russian hands, Ukrainian forces to the north and south have managed to advance far in recent days. Also for this reason, in the speech in which he announced the victory over Bakhmut, Prigozhin specified that the fighting is continuing. And then he added that the troops of the Wagner group will withdraw from the town in the coming days, leaving the management of operations to the Russian army: it could be a sign of the fact that Prigozhin himself knows that the situation in Bakhmut will remain very unstable, and the precarious Russian conquests.
Ukrainian forces are continuing to pressure #Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that fighting is ongoing on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks in the directions of Ivanivske, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. (1/5) pic.twitter.com/3ltkmUPaKO
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 21, 2023
Bakhmut is a small town in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. Before the Russian invasion it had about 70,000 inhabitants. From a military and strategic point of view, Bakhmut is of extremely limited value. It is located on the road leading to the most important Ukrainian cities, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and therefore it is an obligatory passage if the Russian army wants to advance, but other than that there are no particular reasons why its conquest would be more important than that of any other. It is not close to a large river that could constitute a natural defense line nor can it become an important logistic hub.
In January John Kirby, the spokesman for the US National Security Council, argued that even if the Ukrainians had lost Bakhmut “there would be no strategic impact on the war”. According to Western estimates between 20,000 and 30,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in Bakhmut. Ukrainian losses are not known but are in all likelihood comparable.