Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Western agents eager to know what Putin is thinking – BBC News

There has been speculation that the Russian leader is ill, but many analysts believe he has effectively become isolated and alienated from the outside world.

His isolation from the outside world was evident in photos of him meeting French President Emmanuel Macron. The two sat at each end of the long table. On the eve of the war, Putin’s meetings with his own national security team were the same.

A Western intelligence official explained that Putin’s original military plan looked like it was designed by a KGB officer.

They say it was crafted by a tight-knit “cabal” that emphasizes secrecy. But the result was chaos. Russian military commanders were unprepared, and some soldiers crossed the border without knowing what they were doing.

Western spies have undisclosed sources who know better about the plans than many insiders in the Russian leadership. But now they face a new challenge: figuring out what the Russian leader will do next, and it won’t be easy.

“The challenge of understanding the Kremlin’s actions is that Putin is the only decision maker in Moscow,” explained John Sipher, the former head of the CIA’s Russia division. While his views are often made clear through public statements, knowing how he will act is a daunting intelligence challenge.

“In a closely guarded system like Russia’s, it’s extremely difficult to have such reliable intelligence on what’s going on in the minds of leaders, especially when many of them themselves don’t know what’s going on,” Britain The former head of MI6, Sir John Sawers, told the BBC.

Intelligence officials say Putin is isolated in a self-made bubble that little outside information can penetrate, especially information that could challenge his thinking.

“He was a victim of his own propaganda, saying that because he only listened to a certain number of people and excluded everything else. It gave him a strange view of the world,” says Fernhay, a professor of psychology Adrian Furnham said. He is the co-author of the forthcoming book The Psychology of Spies and Spying. This risk is known as “groupthink,” where everyone reinforces his point of view. “If he’s a victim of conformity thinking, we need to know who’s in the group,” Fernheim said.

The circle of people who spoke to Putin was never large, but Western intelligence officials believe their circle in the decision to invade Ukraine has shrunk to a small number of people, all of whom share Putin’s ideas and hobbies.” true believers”.

On the eve of the invasion, he publicly reprimanded the head of his foreign intelligence agency at a national security conference, seemingly to shame the head but to show how small his inner circle has become. His remarks hours later also showed the man’s anger and bitterness towards Ukraine and the West.

Those who have watched Putin say the Russian leader is motivated by a desire to remove the stigma Russia felt in the 1990s and a determination that the West is determined to suppress Russia and oust him. A person who has met Putin remembers enjoying watching videos of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi being killed after he was ousted from power in 2011.

CIA Director William Burns’ assessment of Putin’s state of mind is that Putin “has been tormented by the converging anger of resentment and ambition for years” and described his views as “harder”. “More insulated” from other viewpoints.

Is the Russian president crazy? This is a question that many Western countries are asking. But few experts see the question as meaningful. A psychologist with an established career in the field said it would be wrong to assume that someone who made the decision to invade Ukraine was a “crazy man” because we couldn’t understand it.

The CIA has a team that conducts “leadership analysis” of foreign policymakers, a tradition that goes back to trying to understand Hitler. They use covert intelligence to study background, relationships and health.

There are also personal accounts from people who have direct contact with policymakers, such as other leaders. In 2014, Angela Merkel reportedly told then-President Barack Obama that Putin lived in “another world.” Meanwhile, President Macron’s recent meeting with Putin reportedly found the Russian leader “more stubborn and isolated” than in previous meetings.

Is something wrong? Some speculate on possible ill health or the effects of drugs without much evidence. Others point to psychological factors, such as Putin feeling that there is not much time left for him to accomplish his mission to protect Russia or restore Russia’s greatness. Putin’s apparent isolation from others during the Covid-19 pandemic may have also had a psychological effect.

“Putin is probably not mentally ill and hasn’t changed, although he has been busier and probably more isolated in recent years,” said Dekoleva, a former U.S. government doctor, diplomat and now a senior fellow at the George Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. Ken Dekleva).

But one concern now is that Putin’s closed circle does not have reliable information. His intelligence agencies may have been reluctant to tell him anything he didn’t want to hear before the invasion, giving optimistic pre-war estimates of how the invasion would play out and what Russian troops would encounter. This week, a Western official said Putin may still not be clear about how badly his military is faring compared to Western intelligence agencies. That raises concerns about how he might react to the deteriorating situation in Russia.

Putin himself told the story of chasing mice as a child. When he drove the rat into the corner, the rat attacked him, forcing the young Vladimir to flee. The question Western policymakers are asking is, what if Putin now feels cornered?

“The real question is whether he will double down on the lethality of the weapons he uses,” said one Western official, who fears he could use chemical weapons, or even tactical nuclear weapons.

“The worry is that his recklessness will become unbelievable, and he will use such a cruel way to make a shot,” Fernheim said.

Putin himself may exaggerate how dangerous and irrational he is. This is a well-known tactic (often referred to as the madman theory) in which people with nuclear weapons try to get their opponents to give in by convincing them that they are crazy enough to use them, albeit potentially killing everyone .

It couldn’t be more important for Western spies and policymakers to understand Putin’s intentions and mindset today. Anticipating his reactions is critical so that you know how hard to press him without causing a dangerous rebound.

“Putin’s self-consciousness does not allow for failure or weakness, and he despises those things,” Dekoreva said. “A cornered, weakened Putin is a more dangerous Putin. Sometimes it’s better to let the bears run away. Cage, go back to the forest.”