(Original title: The source is locked! The monkeypox epidemic is spreading fast and the path is unusual, which is really rare! The US biological laboratory has suddenly appeared? The market is betting on the Federal Reserve…)
Recently, there have been more and more research results on monkeypox epidemics.
The latest nine monkeypox virus gene sequencing reports in France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium confirmed that large-scale community transmission of monkeypox has occurred in Europe. In addition, the current round of monkeypox outbreaks is very likely to come from a single source, both belonging to the West African branch.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization reports that the introduction of the West African strain of the monkeypox causative agent originated in Nigeria. According to CCTV news reports, on May 27, local time, the Russian Ministry of Defense pointed out that there are currently at least four biological laboratories controlled by the United States in Nigeria. In response to a series of evidence, the Russian Ministry of Defense called on the World Health Organization to investigate the activities of the biological laboratory funded by the United States and publish the results to the international community.
In addition, cases of childhood hepatitis of unknown etiology are still attracting attention. The World Health Organization said on the 27th that as of the 26th, countries have reported 650 cases of childhood hepatitis of unknown etiology to the organization. The clinical symptoms are more serious than those of the past. A higher rate of acute liver failure occurs. WHO has tentatively rated the global risk of the disease as medium.
Although all parties remain highly concerned about the epidemic, the capital market responded calmly to it, and the U.S. stock market has stepped out of a wave of stabilization and rebound. The three major U.S. stock indexes have all risen by more than 6% for the week, the first time since November 2020. Goldman Sachs’ latest report believes that there are signs that U.S. inflation has fallen from a 40-year high, and the market will respond positively. However, Zhang Yidong’s strategy team of Industrial Securities believes that this does not mean that the US stock market will usher in a reversal, and then it may continue the trend of falling and falling. This round of US stock recession and bear market may be doomed.
The speed of the global spread and the unusual path of transmission are rare
The source of this wave of monkeypox outbreaks seems to be conclusive.
The latest nine monkeypox virus gene sequencing reports from France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium have been published one after another. The researchers said that the analysis of the existing monkeypox virus genome sequence shows that the virus belongs to the mild West African branch, and the relationship between virus samples is extremely close, which further confirms that large-scale community transmission of monkeypox has occurred in Europe.
Analysis of monkeypox virus genome sequencing reports from some national research institutes pointed out that the outbreak of this round of monkeypox epidemic is very likely to come from a source, all belonging to the West African branch of the virus gene evolutionary tree.
The World Health Organization has warned that the current round of monkeypox outbreaks are spreading rapidly and through unusual routes, which are rare. Since the first confirmed case of monkeypox in the UK in early May, more than 300 confirmed and suspected cases of monkeypox have been found in more than 21 countries around the world.
Sylvie Briand, director of global infectious disease preparedness at the World Health Organization, warned at a press conference on the 27th local time that hundreds of monkeys have been diagnosed in Europe, North and South America, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Australia in the past month. The number of pox cases may be just the “tip of the iceberg”.
Briand believes there may be “more cases in the community that go undetected” because monkeypox patients don’t show clear symptoms right away. Infected people initially experience flu-like symptoms, such as fever and muscle pain, before developing a chickenpox-like rash on the face and body.
At the same time, the number of confirmed monkeypox cases in the United States is also increasing. According to a Fox News report on May 28, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as of the 27th, the number of confirmed cases of monkeypox in the United States rose to 12. Among them, California, Colorado, Florida and Utah have two confirmed cases of monkeypox each, and Massachusetts, New York, Washington, and Virginia have one each.
CD director Rochelle Valensky said that not all confirmed cases of monkeypox in the United States have travel history, and with this in mind, there has been community transmission of monkeypox outbreaks in the United States.
It is worth noting that the monkeypox epidemic began to spread to Latin America. On the 27th local time, the Argentine Ministry of Health reported the first confirmed case of monkeypox in the country, and Ecuador, also in Latin America, reported the country’s first suspected monkeypox case on the same day. case.
Known cases of monkeypox are mainly among men who have sex with men, and as June approaches, global health officials are reminding concerned groups to remain on high alert for monkeypox symptoms.
US-controlled biological laboratory emerges
With the release of the gene sequencing reports of monkeypox virus in European countries, the source of this wave of monkeypox epidemics has gradually been locked in the West African branch. In addition, according to the World Health Organization report, the introduction of the West African strain of the monkeypox causative agent originated in Nigeria.
On May 28, according to a CCTV news report, on May 27 local time, the Russian Ministry of Defense continued to publish materials on the US military biological activities. The Russian Ministry of Defense pointed out that, according to the WHO report, the monkeypox pathogen strain in West Africa came from Nigeria, which currently has at least four biological laboratories under the control of the United States.
Coincidentally, according to European and American media reports, at the Munich Security Conference in 2021, which was held in the context of the new crown epidemic, the United States had formulated a plan to deal with the outbreak caused by a new strain of monkeypox virus.
In response to a series of evidence, the Russian Ministry of Defense called on the World Health Organization to investigate the activities of the Nigerian laboratories in Abuja, Zaria and Lagos funded by the United States, and to publish the results to the international community.
At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense also disclosed more details of the UP project of the US Department of Defense. According to CCTV news reports, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the purpose of the UP-2 project approved by the US Department of Defense is to collect information on particularly dangerous pathogens in Ukraine and transfer strain samples; the UP-4 project is to study the possibility of transmitting highly dangerous infectious diseases through migratory birds. .
The documents show that between November 2019 and January 2020 alone, 991 biological samples were collected. The Russian Ministry of Defense currently has information on 10 UP projects, including research on infectious pathogens that are particularly dangerous and have great economic impact, such as Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, leptospirosis, tick-borne encephalitis and African swine fever .
In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that materials used by American instructors to train Ukrainian experts in emergency response to smallpox outbreaks were found in a biological laboratory in Ukraine. The Pentagon’s interest in this infectious disease is no accident, and the “return” of the smallpox pathogen would be a global disaster for all of humanity.
Kirillov, head of the radiation, chemical and biological defense forces of the Russian Armed Forces, said that the U.S. Department of Defense formulated a smallpox vaccination plan as early as 2003, requiring soldiers, diplomatic and medical personnel to be vaccinated against smallpox. At the same time, many countries do not have a smallpox vaccination against monkeypox.
What is the market trading?
Although people have maintained a high degree of attention to the outbreak of the epidemic, the reaction of the capital market to it seems to be more and more calm. Among them, U.S. stocks, which have been falling continuously, have seen a wave of stabilization and rebound. On Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose by more than 2% and 3%, respectively. The Nasdaq recorded the largest increase since May 13, and has collectively closed up for 3 consecutive days. This week The three major U.S. stock indexes rose more than 6%, the first time since November 2020.
The focus of funds in the US stock market is still the change in the attitude of the Federal Reserve. Currently, the market is betting that the Fed will “slam the brakes” on a rate hike in September. Its latest meeting minutes showed that Fed officials are willing to revisit the pace of rate hikes later this year, with policymakers arguing that the monetary stance needs to shift quickly to more neutral and “restrictive policy beyond neutral may become appropriate.” .
At the same time, inflation, the most important measure of Fed policy, appears to be showing signs of peaking and falling back. The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the U.S. PCE price index increased by 6.3% year-on-year in April, compared with the expected value of 6.2% and the previous value of 6.6%, which was the smallest increase since November 2020.
The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, the most favored measure of inflation by Fed policymakers, rose 4.9% year-on-year, compared with expectations of 4.9% and the previous value of 5.2%. In addition, the forecast for the PCE price index has dropped significantly, from 4.3% at the end of 2022 to 2.5% in 2023, and then to 2.1% in 2024.
Goldman Sachs’ latest report pointed to signs that U.S. inflation has begun to fall from a 40-year high, and history suggests that markets will react positively when inflation shows signs of peaking.
Zhang Yidong’s strategy team at Industrial Securities believes that the current “mid-term end” of US stocks may have appeared, and the major indexes are approaching or exceeding the bear market boundary, and then it is expected to usher in a “breathing” window period that lasts for several months. But this does not mean that the U.S. stock market will usher in a reversal, and then it may continue the trend of falling and falling. This round of recession and bear market in the U.S. stock market may be doomed.
Zhang Yidong’s statistics on interest rate hike cycles in the history of the United States found that it is a small probability that the US economy will eventually achieve a “soft landing”. Currently, the Fed is facing the most serious inflation challenge in 40 years, and it is more difficult to balance inflation and economic growth. This time the high probability will be toward recession.