TAIPEI – An armchair for three. A first time for the little girl Taiwan which goes to the polls tomorrow (Saturday 13 January). to elect a new president and a new Parliament. In addition to the traditional race between Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)who has been governing the island for eight years, and the Kuomintang (Kmt)the historic party that was of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek more inclined to dialogue with China, there is a third wheel this year trying to mix up the cards: the People’s Party (TPP) which seeks to capitalize on the younger people’s vote. Crucial elections, now more than ever, to understand which direction relations between the two sides of the Strait will take and what repercussions they will have for the two global superpowers, China and the United States: Beijing – which has claimed the island for over 70 years, “province rebel” to be unified with the motherland by hook or by crook – and Washington, “guarantor” of old Formosa to which it continues to sell weapons to improve its defenses. Here’s who the candidates are, their recipes and the global geopolitical implications.
Lai Ching-te, the bête noire of Beijing
Sixty-four years old, a former doctor, studied at Harvard, before becoming vice-president of the island in 2020 he was a deputy and mayor for two terms of Tainan, a city in the south. In the past he defined himself as a supporter of independence, now he has toned down his positions more radical and says he is willing to dialogue with Beijing, as long as the conditions are adequate. “We are already a sovereign nation and there is no need to declare formal independence. We want to maintain the status quo: it is in the interest of the whole world.” Beijing defines the DPP candidate as a “grave danger”. If elected, Lai will look to America to step up the fragile sovereignty of Taiwan. He has promised to reduce his economic dependence on China: he hopes the island can sign more foreign trade agreements and forge more “partnerships with democracies around the world“. But he says he is still open to dialogue with the great power across the Strait. Dialogue that has not existed between Beijing and the DPP for eight years.
Hou Yu-ih, l’ex super-poliziotto
Polls show Lai ahead of KMT candidate Hou You-ih by between 3 and 11 percentage points. But the last findings allowed by the electoral rules date back to ten days ago and there is therefore still the possibility of some surprises. The son of a pork seller in Chiayi County on the west coast, the 66-year-old Hou was the island’s police chief and currently the highly popular mayor-in-waiting of New Taipei. Candidate from the Kuomintang, the party most inclined to dialogue with China, which nevertheless wants to maintain the status quo. Kuomintang which repeated Beijing’s narrative in this campaign: a vote for the DPP leads to war. The former super-cop who dreams of becoming president presents his three D strategy: deterrence, dialogue and de-escalation. He says he is against a formal declaration of independence, he rejects Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula, the same as Hong Kong. “But we need to talk to China, and we are the only ones capable of doing so.” He says that the safeguarding of the Republic of China, the state that the KMT brought to Taiwan in 1949 after the defeat of the Nationalists in the Chinese Civil War (and which is still the official name of the island), will be his constant commitment. Despite being an expert local governance and security issues, Hou has much less experience on the international stage. Beijing would much prefer a Kuomintang victory.
Ko Wen-je, the surgeon loved by young people
Third wheel is Ko Wen-je. Former mayor of the capital Taipei, before entering politics ten years ago he was a surgeon. After oscillating between the two main parties, in 2019 he founded the TPP, a centrist party with populist recipes. Which is gaining ground among younger people. While the DPP frames the vote as a choice between “democracy and autocracy” and the KMT says it is a question of “war or peace”, Ko says the elections are a competition between “new and old politics”. The traditional basis of Ko’s support is in the north of the country, thanks to his time as a popular independent mayor of Taipei for eight years. His popularity (he has over a million followers on Instagram) endures despite his frequent gaffes. Last October year he compared cross-Strait relations to prostate cancer: a metaphor for the need to coexist with one’s enemies. And he has been criticized in the past for several misogynistic comments.
What is at stake: relations with China but not only
The elections will determine the level of cross-Strait tensions in the years to come. If the DPP remains in power, Beijing will continue to apply pressure with military and economic exercises. A victory for either challenger could ease tensions with Beijing, at least for a while. Despite Beijing flexing its muscles, any explicit military action would come at an enormous cost to China itself. The Taiwan Strait plays a vital role in China’s trade with the world. Bloomberg Economics has calculated the potential cost to the global economy at 10 trillion dollarsAnd. And Taiwan has enormous strategic importance as a manufacturing center for some of the most advanced semiconductors in the world.
For Taiwanese voters there is not only the China issue on the agenda: but the slowdown of the economy, the cost of housing, wages, education. The priority for economic issues is very strong among voters under 40.
The Taipei-Beijing-Washington triangle
A victory for Lai could also worsen friction between China and the United States over Washington’s support for Taiwan. Beijing has repeatedly accused the Biden administration of “connivance and support for ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.” This would put a strain on the fragile detente of bilateral tensions that the President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping they mediated at their meeting in San Francisco in November. Any escalation of Chinese military intimidation across the Taiwan Strait could fuel calls on Capitol Hill for greater U.S. military support for Taiwan. The question of how to manage relations with China is dominating the final stretch of the election campaign. Although Taiwan has long lived under the threat of Chinese invasion, tensions have increased in recent years.
How do elections work?
Polling stations are open from 8am to 4pm (local time). For presidential elections, the winner only needs a simple majority to win. There is no runoff. For Parliament, the Legislative Yuan, each voter has two ballots, one for their local district’s candidate and the other for a party. There are a total of 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan. The threshold to enter Parliament is 5%. Approximately 19.5 million Taiwanese citizens are eligible to vote out of a population of more than 23 million. Voters must be at least 20 years old. During the last presidential and parliamentary elections in 2020, voter turnout hovered around 75%. The new president will take office on May 20. The presidential term is four years and a president can serve a maximum of two consecutive terms. The president of Taiwan is the commander in chief of the armed forces and appoints the prime minister.
The legislative issue
The parliamentary elections, which will be held on the same day, could end without any party obtaining a majority. This would threaten a stalemate on big, highly polarizing issues such as defense spending and cross-Strait trade.
The Historical Context: Who Owns Taiwan?
In Neverland, the old Formosa as the Portuguese baptized it in the 16th century, in 1949 – after the civil war fought between communists and nationalists – the defeated troops of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek found refuge. A retreat that was only supposed to be temporary, to then regroup and overthrow the People’s Republic of China whose birth Mao proclaimed from the balcony of the Gate of Heavenly Peace in Tiananmen on October 1, 1949. It didn’t go that way. The island slides towards the fascist authoritarianism of the Kuomintang leader. And in 1971 he lost his place on the UN Security Council: the ping pong diplomacy between the USA and China had had an effect and since then the communists have been recognized as the only legitimate representatives of China.
The strategic ambiguity of the USA
However, in 1979 the USA approved the Taiwan Relations Act, which grants Taipei treatment essentially equal to any other state despite the absence of formal diplomatic relations. It is the policy of strategic ambiguity that allows Washington to maintain the status quo between the two neighbors and act as the “guarantor” of the island by continuing to sell armaments to the Taiwanese army, without however triggering any automatic mechanism for a possible American military intervention in the event of an attack on the island by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. All of this makes Taiwan one of the biggest flashpoints in U.S.-China relations.