Title: Russian Emigration Boosts Economies of Neighboring Countries
Subtitle: GDP growth in South Caucasus surpasses expectations, thanks to influx of Russian emigrants
Date: [Current Date]
by [Author Name]
At the beginning of October 2022, Forbes Russia reported a staggering number of approximately 700,000 individuals leaving Russia to escape the ongoing war. While some were driven by their discontent with growing authoritarianism, for many, the invasion served as the final blow, sparking their decision to leave. These daunting numbers reveal the immense impact of Russian emigration on neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, as reported by Reuters.
Contrary to concerns over inflation, which some nations experienced due to increased hotel rates and rents, the destinations that accommodated Russian exiles actually witnessed a significant rise in their economies. According to data compiled by the independent Russian news outlet Novaya Gazeta, the South Caucasus region, consisting of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, observed a remarkable 7% GDP growth in 2022. This figure far exceeded the 5.6% growth predicted by economists.
Armenia, once hailed as the Silicon Valley of the Soviet Union, experienced an exceptional surge in growth, reaching as high as 12.6% in comparison to the World Bank’s projected 7.0% growth. Suren Parsyan, a professor at the Armenian State University of Economics, attributes such success to the newly arrived Russians, particularly those employed in the technology sector. The exodus of 10% of workers in this sector, according to the Russian Ministry of Communications, significantly contributed to Armenia’s accelerated growth.
Notably, the Russian emigrants transferred a staggering sum of US$1.75 billion to Armenia in 2022 alone, further bolstering the country’s economy, as stated by Martin Galstyan, governor of the Central Bank of Armenia.
In Georgia, the positive economic trend continued, with a GDP growth rate of 10.1%, surpassing the 8.8% forecast. The central bank of Georgia reported an impressive quintupling of money transfers from Russia, reaching $2.1 billion in 2022, compared to $411 million the previous year.
Turkey also emerged as another popular destination for Russian emigrants, witnessing a 5.6% GDP growth, surpassing the projected 4.7% increase. Antalya, a sought-after seaside resort, experienced an influx of up to 19,000 Russians per day in October. Many of them initially arrived as tourists but eventually decided to extend their stay indefinitely.
Economist Oleg Itskhoki from the University of California noted that the GDP performance in these countries indicated that the arriving Russians possessed substantial savings and were often wealthier than the locals.
In Thailand, more than 331,000 Russians arrived between October and December, with many intending to invest, purchase property, or rent long-term. Real estate agencies in resorts such as Phuket reported a significant increase in Russian clientele and substantial growth in property purchases and rental prices.
Despite these positive trends, Serbia emerged as an exception, with its GDP falling below World Bank projections. Anticipated growth of 4.5% only reached 2.5%, partially attributed to a nine-fold increase in energy prices. Itskhoki also noted that fewer Russians migrated to Serbia compared to Georgia and Armenia, suggesting that without the influx of emigrants, Serbia’s GDP would have suffered more severely.
The economic impact of Russian emigration on neighboring countries offers a unique perspective on the consequences of the ongoing war and the choices made by its citizens. As these destinations witness unprecedented growth, questions arise about the long-term implications and whether these countries can continue to benefit from the contributions of Russian emigrants.
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