The fifth round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has now made a major breakthrough. How far is the situation in Ukraine from the turning point?
Author: Pan Yinru
[ 乌克兰局势发展至今，对俄能源进口依赖度高达40%的欧洲，始终在是否把制裁大棒针对俄石油和天然气领域犹豫再三。目前，波兰已率先决定对俄罗斯进口煤炭下禁令。在乌克兰局势恶化之初，波兰就一直呼吁欧盟制裁来自俄罗斯的石油、天然气和煤炭，但遭到德国等国家的反对。 ]
After the fifth round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on the situation in Ukraine, positive news finally came.
According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 29th local time, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations held a new round of negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city. Negotiations took place behind closed doors at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul. This is the second face-to-face dialogue between the two sides after a period of video negotiations.
The day before the talks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that Russia cannot allow the West to turn Ukraine into a NATO outpost and deploy strike weapons in the country to threaten Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the goal of the Ukrainian side during the talks was very clear, that is, to achieve peace in the country as soon as possible and return to normal life.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who facilitated the talks, met with negotiators from both sides before the talks and reiterated that he was willing to facilitate Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelensky to meet in Turkey. Regarding the talks, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said: “The idea that Ukraine may remain neutral, as well as relevant statements from Russia are positive signals. The negotiations on the 29th are the most important meetings so far.”
Wei Jinshen, an associate professor at the School of Politics and International Relations of Lanzhou University, told Yicai.com, “The reason why this round of negotiations is regarded as the biggest breakthrough since the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine is that Russia and Ukraine are close to agreement on some key issues, which makes Russia and Ukraine close to the same level. It is expected that a ceasefire will be achieved. For example, the two sides have gradually converged on issues such as the determination of Ukraine’s status, Ukraine’s non-joining of NATO, and de-escalation of the conflict. Second, the negotiation has sent a positive signal that Russia and Ukraine are expected to achieve a ceasefire. For example, after the negotiation, Russia will The Ministry of Defense decided to significantly reduce military operations in Ukraine in Kyiv and Chernihiv; the third is the negotiation that laid the groundwork for the summit meeting between Russia and Ukraine and the eventual signing of a peace treaty.”
these positive signals
According to CCTV news reports, although the Russian and Ukrainian delegations held separate press conferences after the negotiation, the two sides discussed five hot topics at the same time.
First, whether Ukraine will become a “neutral country”. Mezinsky, head of the Russian negotiating delegation, said that Ukraine proposed to become a permanently neutral, non-aligned, non-nuclear-weapon state under international legal guarantees, and also listed a list of countries that would provide security guarantees to Ukraine.
Podoljak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president’s office, said that security guarantees need to provide military support, in which case Ukraine can become a neutral country. Ukraine is currently unable to reach an agreement with Russia on security issues. Ukraine could discuss other topics if the security guarantees ensure that Russia withdraws.
Second, with regard to military action, Mezinski said that Russia is taking two steps to de-escalate the conflict with Ukraine. In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense decided to reduce its military operations in Kyiv and Chernihiv several times; Podoljak said that a very important issue is a ceasefire to resolve all accumulated humanitarian problems.
A few hours after the talks, the Ukrainian command stated that it had observed changes in Russia’s actions in Kyiv and the big northern city of Chernihiv, and individual troops were withdrawing.
The third is the question of Ukraine’s entry into the military alliance. Mezinsky said Ukraine gave up joining any military alliance; Podoljak stressed that with security guarantees Ukraine would not become a member of a military organization. Earlier, Zelensky had also made it clear that Ukraine had given up the idea of joining NATO.
The fourth is the question of whether Ukraine will join the European Union. Mezinsky said that Russia does not oppose Ukraine’s accession to the EU; Podoljak believes that Ukraine’s accession to the EU must not have any obstacles.
The fifth point is the possibility of a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, which has attracted much attention. In this regard, Mezinsky emphasized that the meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian presidents can be held at the same time as the initial signing of the peace treaty between the foreign ministries of the two countries. “If we move forward quickly and reach a mutual compromise on the signing of the treaty, peace will come earlier.” Doliac said he hoped an agreement could be reached within two weeks and that the leaders of the two countries could meet.
How did Europe and the United States react
Not only Russia and Ukraine, but many European and American countries are also paying close attention to the latest round of negotiations.
According to US media reports, after the talks, US Secretary of State Blinken expressed doubts about the Russian statement. He said that what Russia said and what Russia did, the United States paid more attention to the latter; in the statement of the Russian Deputy Defense Minister, the United States did not see that Russia had a new position on the situation.
Later on the 29th, German Chancellor Scholz, U.S. President Biden, French President Macron, British Prime Minister Johnson and Italian Prime Minister Draghi held a conference call. The five leaders agreed to maintain sanctions on Russia, continue to provide aid to Ukraine, and called for an early ceasefire and a diplomatic solution to the conflict. The five countries also called on Russia to allow emergency humanitarian aid into Ukraine and to establish effective humanitarian corridors. At the same time, the statement also reiterated the channel of continued communication with Russia through the French government.
In addition, the five leaders also discussed current energy security and energy prices. Earlier, the Russian government said that from this month, natural gas transactions against “unfriendly countries and regions” towards Russia will be settled in rubles. Currently, there is only one day left until this deadline. As the main buyer of Russian natural gas, the importers of oil and gas resources in many European countries have made it clear that they will not use rubles for transactions. For this reason, Russia has threatened to “cut off” the supply of natural gas.
Since the development of the situation in Ukraine, Europe, which relies on Russia for energy imports by as much as 40%, has been hesitating whether to target Russia’s oil and gas fields with sanctions. At present, Poland has taken the lead in deciding to ban coal imports from Russia. Poland has been calling for EU sanctions on oil, gas and coal from Russia since the beginning of the deteriorating situation in Ukraine, but has been opposed by countries such as Germany.
Has the situation in Ukraine reached an inflection point?
Since the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine at the end of February, Russia and Ukraine have entered a rhythm of “fighting and talking”. Russian media believe that although there has been no major progress in the previous four rounds of negotiations, at least it has opened up a channel for dialogue between Russia and Ukraine.
Wei Jinshen believes that both Russia and Ukraine have made certain concessions in this negotiation, showing their sincerity in solving the problem. “On the one hand, Russia’s security concerns have been largely realized, with Ukraine proposing to become a permanently neutral, non-aligned, non-nuclear-weapon state under international legal guarantees, and a commitment not to join any military bloc under the premise of security guarantees,” he said. , “On the other hand, Russia took the initiative to ease the conflict with Ukraine, significantly reduced military operations, and did not oppose Ukraine’s accession to the EU. This provides a prerequisite for the subsequent development of the situation.”
As for the development of the follow-up situation, Wei Jinshen believes that the first thing to pay attention to is the future summit meeting between Russia and Ukraine, the signing of the peace treaty, as well as when the two sides will achieve a ceasefire and how to end the conflict. “This will become the focus of the international community.” . At the same time, other issues arising from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, such as the status of the Donbas region, how to resolve the Crimea issue, the construction and operation of the security mechanism in the Black Sea region, and the future of Russia-West relations, all deserve further attention. .
Agathe Demarais, director of global forecasting at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), told China Business News that the situation in Ukraine will continue to affect the world economy in the future in terms of sanctions, high global commodity prices and supply chain disruptions.
Demalek predicts from an economic perspective that the Russian economy will shrink by 10% this year. Although Western sanctions will not be lifted in a short time, relying on the bull market in commodities, the Russian economy may return to the level before the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine in 2025; But Ukraine, on the other side of the conflict, is clearly going to be “wounded” deeper: the recession this year will be 46.5%, and it may take up to 15 years for the economy to fully recover.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
Responsible editor: Li Tong