It was now only a matter of time, but the news of the fall of the village of OcheretyneIn the Donetskfurther worsens the situation along the Ukrainian front line and confirms that the Russians have managed to open a breccia which risks triggering a Domino effect capable of collapsing Kiev’s defenses in a few weeks. The activism, currently only in declarations, of some European leaders such as Emmanuel Macron it was a sign of the difficulties the Ukrainian army is facing. Now, the capture of the village risks being only the last piece, in chronological order, of an advance difficult to contain and favored by soil conditions during the spring and summer seasons.
The news of the capture of Ocheretyne was given by the Ministry of Defense in Moscow. News that has been awaited for days, ever since the men of the Russian army took over Berdichyrazed to the ground Chasiv Yar and especially since the spokesperson of the Ukrainian military command himself, Khortytsia Nazar Voloshynadmitted that “the situation is such that the enemy managed to break through“.
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Now it is up to Kiev’s Armed Forces to decide how to move to try to respond to the blows inflicted by Moscow. And the stability of the company could depend on this choice, provided it is not already compromised resistence against the Russian invasion. Almost all the hills around Avdiivka are under Russian control, the Ukrainians accumulate forces a Novoaleksandrovka e Arkhangelsk to stem the advance and Russia seems to have every intention of launching a decisive and penetrating attack: it is no coincidence that it is building a new air base in the region of Belgorodjust 70 kilometers from the border, an objective within reach of the ATACMs or gods Storm Shadow Ukrainians if Moscow fails to move the front line a few hundred kilometers to the west. Thus, Kiev will have to carefully decide how many troops to move to strengthen the Avdiivka front, without too much depriving other hot spots, such as that of Kahrkiv.
Two other factors, however, play against the army’s defensive plans Volodymyr Zelensky. The first is the evident inferiority in the number of armaments available, also due in part to recent delays and the scarcity of Western supplies, and above all of men to be employed on the front. It is precisely for this reason that the deputy head of Kiev intelligence, Vadym Skibitskyinterviewed by The Economist he said clearly that the advance of Moscow’s troops will not be stopped, so much so that he sees – not before the second half of 2025 – the need for a negotiated to put an end to the war. The risk is that Moscow advances so much that waiting times are shortened. Or to convince countries like the France to enter directly into the conflict.
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