issuing time:
To achieve emission reductions and curb global warming, there are gaps in the goals and policies of all parties. At present, the chances of controlling global warming at 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius are rapidly declining. World leaders are gathering in Glasgow to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), and a latest climate report by the staff of the International Monetary Fund shows that if global policies remain unchanged, carbon emissions in 2030 will be much higher than The level required to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius target. The International Monetary Fund Georgieva said that in order to achieve this goal, we urgently need to reduce carbon emissions by 55% from the baseline level by 2030; and if we want to achieve the 2 degrees Celsius temperature control target, we need to reduce carbon emissions. The amount is reduced by 30%. In order to achieve the aforementioned emission reduction targets, the decision makers attending the COP26 conference must eliminate the major gap between their goals and policies.
Let me talk about the global gap in emission reduction targets. Georgieva said that 135 countries (which account for more than three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions) have pledged to achieve a net zero goal by the middle of this century. But our commitment to short-term goals is not enough. Even if all parties fulfill their existing commitments for 2030, they can only achieve one-third to two-thirds of the emissions reductions required by the temperature control target.
For reasons of fairness and historical responsibility, advanced economies are expected to reduce carbon emissions more quickly. These countries have jointly pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 43% from the 2030 baseline level.
At the same time, higher-income emerging market economies have jointly pledged to cut carbon emissions by 12%, and lower-income emerging market economies have pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 6%.
But the International Monetary Fund’s climate report shows that each of these groups of countries must do more—regardless of how they allocate their emissions reductions.
In order to achieve more ambitious emission reduction targets, it is extremely important to increase external financial support for emerging markets and developing economies. Developed economies must fulfill their commitments to provide 100 billion U.S. dollars in funding to low-income countries every year starting in 2020. The latest data shows that we have not reached this goal.
Let’s talk about the global gap in mitigating climate change policies. Even if countries around the world can make sufficiently aggressive emission reduction commitments, we still need to formulate relevant policies to implement emission reductions. Carbon pricing—charging on the carbon content of fuels or their carbon emissions—should play a central role, and this is especially true for large emitters. It can release a price signal all at once, so that private investment will shift to low-carbon technology and high energy efficiency.
But the gap between what we need to achieve and the actual situation is very large. In order to achieve the temperature control target within 2 degrees Celsius, we need to raise the global carbon price to more than US$75 per ton in 2030.
Recent empirical studies have shown that carbon pricing reforms have not reduced GDP or employment. In fact, such reforms can support long-term economic growth goals. Revenue from carbon pricing—usually about 1% or more of GDP—can be used to reduce labor taxes or increase public investment, thereby helping to boost the economy.
These are just some examples of how climate mitigation strategies can bring broader benefits to all sectors of society (and they must be able to do so). Policy makers should ensure a fair transition and provide strong support to disadvantaged families, workers and regions.
Another key element of any climate change mitigation strategy is green public investment. We need to accelerate the adoption of clean technology infrastructure, such as smart grids and electric vehicle charging stations. The combination of public and private investment in clean energy can release a particularly huge growth effect; low-carbon industries are often more labor-intensive than fossil fuel industries, which will help promote employment.
All reforms should be gradual and well communicated, which will facilitate the adjustment of enterprises and families. These reforms should also cover a wider range of carbon emission sources (such as methane) and increase forest carbon storage.
Georgieva said that if we do not close our gap in the areas of goals, policies and funding as soon as possible, the carbon emission reduction work after 2030 will face a very dangerous cliff effect-by then, the cost of transformation will be greatly increased. It may also never achieve the global temperature control target.
We can achieve transformation in an orderly, cooperative, and timely manner, and we must do the same. Now, we must act.
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