News from the Associated Press, November 27 (edited by Shi Zhengcheng)According to Western media reports over the weekend, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its 10th month, the U.S.-led NATO front is having trouble replenishing Ukrainian arsenals—ammunition is being consumed too quickly. There are various indications thatThe ability to supply arms will become a key factor in the next stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war of attrition。
NATO officials compared that during the war in Afghanistan, NATO troops fired about 300 rounds of shells a day, and at the same time they did not have to worry about air defense. But in addition to destroying thousands of shells every day, the Ukrainian army also faces the pressure of the Russian Air Force.
Camille Grand, a defense expert at the Council of Europe’s Foreign Relations Committee, described,Ukraine can consume more in a day than Afghanistan in a month. Grand was until recently NATO’s assistant secretary-general for defense investment.
Arms production capacity cannot keep up
Senior NATO officials revealed that during the Battle of Donbass, Ukrainian artillery fired 6,000-7,000 rounds of shells per day, while the artillery fired by Russia could reach 40,000-50,000 rounds per day. For comparison, the production capacity of American shells is about 15,000 rounds per month.
More importantly, there are a large number of Soviet-era equipment in the Ukrainian army’s “demand list”, including T72 tanks, S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, and artillery shells adapted to the caliber of Soviet equipment. After more than half a year of attrition on the Ukrainian front, stock levels of these older objects are becoming precarious.
At the same time, in the face of the protracted war of attrition, the more expensive anti-aircraft missiles and individual “Javelin” missiles in the Western military aid list have also begun to run out of stock. NATO is trying to produce some old-fashioned equipment for emergency.Many governments have signaled to the military industry to hire more shifts and restart old production lines. These arms demands are also beginning to spill over to industries in South Korea and other countries.
It is reported that NATO has even considered investing in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria to restart the production of 152 and 122 caliber shells suitable for Ukrainian artillery.
To complicate matters further, theThe military industry within NATO has very strong regional characteristics. For NATO countries, their own military equipment rarely adapts to shells produced by other NATO countries, which also means that equipment manufacturers can continue to sell shells. At the same time, many NATO countries also have legal restrictions on the transfer of weapons. For example, Switzerland refuses to transfer anti-aircraft ammunition produced by Germany to Ukraine.
This situation also makes the equipment status of the Ukrainian army extremely mixed. NATO officials once referred to Ukraine’s weapons systems as NATO’s “Arms Zoo“, referring to the fact that the Ukrainian army has the German “Cheetah” anti-aircraft tank and the French “Sidewinder” surface-to-air missile system. The supply and maintenance of ammunition for these weapons is becoming more and more a problem.
NATO’s own supply also has problems
NATO has required member states to increase military expenditures to 2% of GDP by 2024, with at least 20% of the funds spent on equipment.
NATO officials revealed that when the conflict broke out in February this year,Arms stockpiles in many countries are less than half of ideal levels, At the same time, the progress of common weapons between countries is not smooth. Even without considering the United States, the joint development of weapons and equipment among EU member states accounted for only 18% of the total.
What is even more embarrassing is that after more than half a year of consumption, the arsenals of NATO countries are also in a state of emergency. After the escalation of the conflict, France sent at least 18 Caesar self-propelled artillery systems to Ukraine, accounting for 20% of the country’s artillery systems in stock, so it is now reluctant to supply more weapons.
At the EU level, a compensation fund of 3.1 billion euros has been set up for member states that aid Ukraine with weapons, but nearly 90% of the money has now been used up. At the NATO level, member states have provided Ukraine with arms worth 40 billion euros, which is close to the annual military spending of France.
According to NATO officials,At present, nearly 20 of the 30 member states have no spare capacity, mainly some small countries. Other major countries such as Germany, France, and Italy have the potential to further provide equipment. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has stressed to countries that NATO’s inventory level guidance should not be a constraint on aid to Ukraine. But the United States, France, and Germany are also deliberately controlling the equipment level of the Ukrainian army,Prevent NATO weapons from hitting the Russian mainland directly.
At least for the moment, a variety of weapons and equipment that the Ukrainian army has always wanted have not entered the military aid list, including long-range surface-to-surface missile systems, fighter jets and tanks from Western countries, and more advanced air defense missile systems.
Even with such restrictions, Ukraine’s use of some weapons still worries NATO. For example, in order to attack the Russian Snake Island position 50 kilometers away from the front line, the Ukrainian army installed the French Caesar artillery with a range of 40 kilometers on the tugboat and drove it 10 kilometers. This operation also shocked the French army. The Ukrainian army also launched attacks on Russian naval ships by modifying drones.
As for the United States, which has always emphasized that “military aid will not stop”, it is also consideringProvide Ukraine with cheaper weapons, such as Dow anti-tank missiles, which are available in large quantities, rather than the more expensive Javelin missiles. At the same time, the U.S. military is also urging Ukraine to “calculate economic accounts.”Don’t Hit Russia’s $20,000 Drone With a $150,000 Air Defense Missile。
Mark F. Cancian, a former White House equipment strategy analyst, told the media that for the U.S. arms inventory, the current inventory of 155-caliber artillery shells, guided missiles and launchers, and self-propelled artillery is in a “very limited” state. Among them, the shortage of 155 caliber shells is the most worrying policy makers, because the production capacity of this shell,Often takes four to five years to materially improve。