In the best tradition of realpolitik, the president of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyevwas received with full honors in Germaniajust two days after cashing in on the approval of constitutional changes which actually made it leader a vita of his country. In fact, at the end of April it was held in the Central Asian republic a referendum which has profoundly affected the Uzbek Constitutional Charter. Ensuring greater protection in terms of rights and social services to citizens of the state, but also by reviewing the presidential term. The latter, kept renewable only once, was in fact extended to seven years from the previous five, resetting the current situation. In this way Mirziyoyev, who will end his current second term in 2026, will be able to reapply and potentially, given the authoritarian nature of the regime he inherited from his predecessor Islam Karimov in 2016, stay in power until 2040.
Going back to the Uzbek leader’s visit to Berlin, the fact that it was organized so soon after the referendum passage suggests the grip that Mirziyoyev has on the domestic political sphere and his willingness to immediately capitalize on the current situation by positioning himself as reform-minded leader and at the opening ofUzbekistan outwards. In Germany he held meetings with the federal president Frank Walter Steinmeier and with the chancellor Olaf Scholzas well as with leading figures in the German business world (agreements have been signed for 9 billion euros). The latter is an essential element, considering that Mirziyoyev is advocating a model based on timid political and social openings which are accompanied by much more significant steps forward from an economic point of view.
It must also be said that the current geopolitical situation has meant that no critical voice has been raised in any European country, nor from overseas, with respect to the constitutional changes strongly desired by the Uzbek president to guarantee himself almost another two decades in power. only theOsce it went so far as to criticize the climate in which the popular consultation took place. Too important indeed is that Tashkent remains at least equidistant between Bruxelles e Mosca: in turn the latter is becoming the protagonist of a diplomatic frenzy in Central Asia which is unprecedented, due to visits and continuous telephone exchanges, given that the republics of the area are among the few to have remained at least neutral with respect to the Ukrainian affair.
Talking about Russiathe current silence with respect to Uzbekistan clashes with the criticisms that were raised when, in July 2020, Putin had obtained similar constitutional changes, also guaranteeing itself from a formal point of view the possibility of occupying the rooms of the Kremlin until 2036. In that case theEuropean Union had officially asked Moscow to investigate the reports of irregularities during the vote. Not only that: criticism on the substance of the reform had also come from Brussels, such as the amendment that guarantees legislative primacy to Russian law with respect to commitments undertaken at an international level. An attention that towards the regime that leads Uzbekistan has not manifested itself, at least at the moment.
Indeed, Mirziyoyev’s agenda is extremely busy. After the visit to Germany, he indeed looks forward to meeting him in Chinese con Xi Jinping, together with the other presidents of the Central Asian republics. Very important appointment, considering that the president of the People’s Republic it will outline Beijing’s strategy for the area. A significant event which is part of a continuity of relations, considering how much China has invested in Central Asia in recent years and how much it considers the countries of the area privileged interlocutors on the international scene, also due to political affinities.
Less routine, despite the fact that Italy too has increased its role in the region in recent years, is the visit that Mirziyoyev will instead hold in June to Roma. Top-level meetings are expected, considering that unless denied, the Uzbek leader will have talks with the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarellawith the first Giorgia Meloni and with the Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani. On the table, also in this case, the deepening of political partnership and the strengthening of commercial relations.
Rather than prompting a critical attitude towards a leader who is increasingly in control of the domestic political sphere, the approval of the referendum in Uzbekistan seems instead to have triggered the opposite effect. The willingness on the part of numerous chancelleries – because it is to be imagined that Mirziyoyev will travel abroad many times in the coming months – to forge relations with a political figure with whom it will probably be necessary to interface for the next two decades. He figures at the helm of a country that is anything but secondary: Uzbekistan in fact has almost 40 million inhabitants, a growing economy and borders on all the other Central Asian republics, includingAfghanistan. Factor, the latter, which makes it a cornerstone of regional security.
Awareness that there is also a Washington. US Secretary of State, Antony Blinkvisited the region in March, reiterating the attention that is paid to him United States lend to sovereignty andterritorial integrity of local partners, however leaving the issue of rights and democratic openness almost off the table. As realpolitik dictates.