What is the Shahed drone factory like where Ukraine made its deepest attack on Russian territory

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A Ukrainian drone attack in the central Russian region of Tatarstan this Tuesday hit a building in a business park in the city of Yelabuga and an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, both about 1,100 kilometers from the common border between the two countries.

The attack, which injured more than a dozen people, would be the largest drone attack carried out by Kyiv forces since the start of fighting in February 2022.

Defense sources in Kyiv told AFP that Ukraine was behind the attacks, which they say hit an assembly facility for Iranian-designed Shahed explosive drones that has been the topic of conversation among military observers for several months.

The factory was part of a multibillion-dollar Russian arms deal with Iran that came to light in November 2022. At the time, there was speculation that the facility would be responsible for producing 6,000 Saheds by the summer of 2025, enough to alleviate the chronic shortage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) on the front of the Russian army.

Russia is focusing on mass production of the Shahed-136, which has a range of more than 1,000 kilometers and can strike deep behind the front line.

Russia established the Tatarstan assembly plant in April 2023, although the manufacturing effort initially used exclusively Iranian components. According to the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, in August of that same year, the Russian plant had “reassembled drones supplied by Iran and manufactured only drone bodies, and probably for no more than 300” devices.

However, neither the Russian nor the Iranian authorities spoke about the factory, and its activity was shrouded in secrecy: only satellite images were seen that showed that the construction at the plant coincided “directly” with a leaked plan of the structure that the Washington Post had provided earlier that year.

Until, in early March, a video showing the plant’s assembly line appeared on Russian and Ukrainian military channels with claims that Shahed drones of Iranian origin were being mass-produced to be launched against Ukraine.

The 17-second video allegedly showed the factory in Yelabuga being attacked on Tuesday.

In the video, several examples of the Iranian Shahed-136 can be identified, which bear the Russian name “Geran” in Cyrillic on the wings.

Apparently, the drones that appear in the video and photos are still in the assembly phase, without their propulsion or avionics units.

The video also shows two different colors of the drone fuselages, some in light gray and others in a dark gray-charcoal tone. The latter, also seen in the Iranian-produced Shaheds, would be the version optimized for night operations, according to sites specialized in weapons.

According to military experts such as John Hardie, Russian “night Shaheds” could even employ some type of anti-radar materials or coatings, to also help evade radars.

Another improvement that has occurred in Russian production is a structure in composite materials that is likely to help mass production.

As for production costs, it is believed that the unit cost of a Russian-made Shahed will start at around $50,000, with the potential for the price to drop substantially over time. Still, the starting figure is comparable to the much higher costs of acquiring ballistic or cruise missiles that could be used to attack Ukrainian targets.

The production capacity of the Russian plant is the subject of controversy. While Ukrainian intelligence has stated that Russia can produce between 300 and 350 Shaheds per month, which is consistent with the volume of attacks observed, some pro-Russian military bloggers believe that production will soon rise to between 1,500 and 2,000 units per month.

Some military experts claim that the Shahed bodies are the easiest to mass-produce. However, everything else, including the engine and electronics, is more complex and difficult to obtain, especially since Russia remains under international sanctions.

And the Shaheds, like many other Russian weapons, rely heavily on foreign electronic components.

Still, Ukrainian sources have recently reported that the factory will fully transition to Russian components sometime next year.

Despite the problems, according to the Washington Post’s 2023 report, “the sprawling new drone factory could help Russia preserve its dwindling supply of precision munitions, thwart Ukraine’s efforts to retake occupied territories and dramatically advance Moscow’s position in the drone arms race that is remaking modern warfare.”

From this threat probably arose Ukraine’s decision to attack this key factory. According to the press service of Tatar leader Rustam Minnikhanov, however, the attacks “did not cause serious damage or affect the work of the factories.”

The truth is that, even before the prospect of greater numbers of Shahed-type drones leaving the Russian production chain, Moscow’s use of Iranian-designed drones has caused widespread destruction in much of Ukraine.

Russian drones have attacked both civilians and critical energy infrastructure. Drones have also been used to disrupt Kyiv’s efforts to export grain, including attacks on Ukrainian ports on the Danube River.

At the same time, Kyiv did not stand by. On the contrary, it has recently developed drones that can fly more than 1,000 kilometers, Ukrainian Digital Affairs Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who is involved in the country’s drone program, told the German newspaper Welt in an interview published on Monday.