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Wednesday’s coup in Niger that ousted democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum two years earlier was not an exceptional event for Northwest Africa and the Sahel: there have been seven coups in the region since 2020 succeeded. This is a very significant fact, if we consider that the trend in the first twenty years of the new millennium was completely different: in fact, in that period the frequency of military coups was much lower. In the last three years, armies and military juntas have overthrown democratic governments (or other military coup plotters) also in Burkina Faso (twice), in Mali (twice), in Chad and in Guinea. Other coups have been attempted and failed in Guinea Bissau, Gambia, Sao Tome and Principe, Sudan and previously still in Niger.
The reasons for this trend are many: at the base there are the strong political instability of the areas involved, as well as the widespread corruption and the weakness of the democratic institutions of those countries. In many areas the situation is made worse by the presence of the activities of jihadist groups, some of which are affiliated with the Islamic State or al Qaeda.
In recent years, however, the military coups seem to have been favored, or at least not held back, by an ever-increasing “inaction” of the so-called international community: often instead of intervening decisively, the international community limited itself to isolating the new regimes, without however adopt more incisive measures (such as sanctions). Already in September 2021 the UN secretary general António Guterres had warned of the “return of coups”attributing them precisely to the lack of unity in the international community: “A sense of impunity is spreading”.
The pandemic and the contraction of already scarce resources had increased the economic problems of several states, where on some occasions the population sided in favor of a regime change, albeit carried out by force and with undemocratic means.
Military coups in the area were furthered by the presence of the Wagner group, a mercenary company affiliated with the Russian government for a long time before the attempted military revolt last June. In some situations the support was direct, with training and the supply of arms, in others it was limited to proposing future economic support. The head and founder of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, commented on his Telegram channel on the coup in Niger: “What is happening is nothing but the battle of the Nigerien people against their colonizers.”
The Wagner group is particularly active in Mali, where it has fueled already existing resentment over the presence of French contingents, who have since announced their withdrawal from the area in 2021. The Russian mercenaries are providing military support to Mali’s ruling military junta, led by self-proclaimed president Assimi Goita and the result of two coups in less than a year (2020 and 2021).
In Mali, as well as in Guinea, the ruling military juntas have promised future transitions towards a return to democracy, but there are many doubts about their real intentions. In Chad, after the assassination of President Idriss Deby by a group of rebels, power passed arbitrarily to his son Mahamat Deby Itno, but clashes within the country remained frequent.
Coups, what appears to be a preoccupation of decades after independence now seems to be fledging across Africa, esp the Sahel.
Mali 🇲🇱, Burkina Faso 🇧🇫, Guinea 🇬🇳, Chad 🇹🇩, Sudan 🇸🇩, and Niger 🇳🇪 are all under military rule at a time they are battling decade-long armed rebellion pic.twitter.com/0N8N2WYEu3
— Yūsuf Akinpēlu. (@AkinpeluYusuph) July 28, 2023
Second a study by US researchers Jonathan Powell (University of Central Florida) and Clayton Thyne (University of Kentucky), there have been over 200 coup attempts in Africa since 1952: about half have been successful and Sudan is the state that it has recorded more, 16. The last one, in 2019, brought to power generals Fattah al Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, whose respective armies have been clashing in much of the country since April. Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa with about 220 million inhabitants, also had a complex history of repeated coups d’état: there were 8 between 1966 and 1993, but regular elections and transfers of power have been held in the country since 1999 Democrats.
Overall Africa is by far the continent where military coups are more frequent: of the last sixteen made in the world since 2017, the only one that took place elsewhere is that of Myanmar in 2021.