The recent government reshuffle in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration has sparked speculation about the shifting priorities within the Kremlin. The replacement of long-time Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with civilian economist Andrey Belousov has raised questions about the focus on the war economy and military spending in Russia.
Belousov, a former interim prime minister, is seen as a competent technocrat who could potentially increase military spending to match the West in artillery ammunition production. This move comes at a crucial time as the United States Congress approves more military aid to Ukraine and Russia pushes for a new advance along the northeastern border.
The appointment of Belousov also signals a potential clean-up operation in the Defense Ministry following a corruption scandal that led to the dismissal of a former deputy. Additionally, the lateral move of Shoigu to the position of secretary of the Russian Security Council indicates that he will still be involved in military production issues.
While the reshuffle may suggest a shift in priorities within the defense sector, General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff and a key figure in the invasion of Ukraine, remains in his position. The upper echelons of power in Russia continue to be committed to Putin’s goals of subjugating Ukraine and maintaining a strong military presence.
However, the latest government shakeup could signal a potential power struggle among the Russian elite, with the removal of Nikolai Patrushev, a prominent figure from the Soviet security services. Patrushev’s replacement by his son Dmitry Patrushev as deputy prime minister has fueled speculation about succession plans within the Kremlin.
Despite the changes at the top, Kremlin watchers believe that Putin’s main objectives remain the same: to strengthen the state’s ability to support military needs and continue the confrontation with the West. While the music may be playing faster inside the Kremlin, it appears that the loyal contenders are simply playing musical chairs in the ongoing power dynamics of Russian politics.