[Epoch Times, May 14, 2022](The Epoch Times reporters Ning Haizhong and Luo Ya) The summit between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN, referred to as ASEAN) will be held in Washington on May 12 and 13. This is the first time ASEAN leaders have gathered at the White House as a group. U.S. President Joe Biden said the summit marked a “new era” in relations between the two sides. Does this mean that ASEAN countries have chosen sides between China and the US to a certain extent?
U.S.-ASEAN summit confronts China’s challenge
A total of 8 ASEAN leaders participated in the US-ASEAN summit. The Philippines is in a transitional period after the general election, represented by the foreign minister. Myanmar’s leader, who was excluded because of last year’s coup, used an empty chair during the summit to represent Myanmar’s overthrown civilian government.
“Over the next 50 years, much of the history of this world will be written in ASEAN countries,” Biden said at the summit on Friday. “We are launching a new era — (a new era of) U.S.-ASEAN relations.”
Biden had pledged during his presidential campaign to make China a central focus of his foreign policy. Biden’s hosting of Southeast Asian leaders at the White House has been widely seen as a demonstration of America’s commitment to the region amid China’s growing ambitions.
Earlier on Friday, U.S. Vice President Harrison told ASEAN leaders that Southeast Asia was a U.S. priority and stressed the need to preserve freedom of the seas. Washington says that freedom has been challenged by China.
Chen Weijian, a senior media person and editor-in-chief of “Beijing Spring”, told The Epoch Times on May 13 that the US Indo-Pacific strategy is to prepare for a return to Asia. Now it looks like the Ukrainian war is almost over. When the Ukrainian war is over, U.S. policy will begin to target the CCP.
“The United States has paid little attention to Southeast Asia for so many years. Now that the United States has adjusted its strategy, it will focus on the CCP and unite Southeast Asian countries.”
Wang He, a current affairs observer in the United States, told The Epoch Times on May 13 that the background of the meeting was that the bipolar confrontation between China and the United States accelerated the evolution of the world pattern.
“In the Asia-Pacific region, China and the United States have two focus of competition, one is ASEAN countries, and the other is South Pacific countries. ASEAN has become the stronghold of the CCP in Asia and the sphere of influence of the CCP. Because the economic relationship between the CCP and ASEAN is very strong. close.”
According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, ASEAN is China’s largest trading partner in 2020 and 2021. In 2021, the bilateral trade in goods will reach US$878.2 billion.
All 10 ASEAN member states have signed Belt and Road related documents with China. In November alone, Beijing also pledged $1.5 billion in development aid to ASEAN countries over three years.
Cambodia and Laos are seen as the most pro-CCP among ASEAN members. Among them, Cambodia is also the rotating chair of ASEAN this year.
But in recent years, relations with countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia have been fractured as China’s expansion in the South China Sea has led to disputes over sovereignty issues.
The Biden administration has a special attack on the CCP’s “Belt and Road”
At Thursday’s opening ceremony, Biden pledged $150 million to aid countries in infrastructure, energy transition, security and pandemic prevention programs to counter Beijing’s influence on the ground.
“We stand with our allies and partners in defending an order based on the rules of the sea, including freedom of navigation and international law,” U.S. Vice President Harris said on Friday.
Wang He told The Epoch Times that the Biden administration has two strikes against the CCP’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative. The first is that the quotations for projects offered by the CCP to recipient countries are inflated. The United States can provide economic and technical support to renegotiate the projects of recipient countries and lower the price. The CCP cannot be fooled. He believes that the US $150 million aid is mainly at work in this regard.
Wang He said that the entire world economic structure has three major sectors, one is the European Union, the other is North America, and the other is the Asia-Pacific. After Biden takes office, he will promote the close ties between the United States and the Asia-Pacific region, and the CCP will not be allowed to dominate the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, an Indo-Pacific economic framework must be launched.
“Because there is a lot of trouble in U.S. politics to open the U.S. market and reduce tariffs on ASEAN, Biden doesn’t want to take this step, and the Indo-Pacific economic framework does not involve these issues. He only addresses some specific issues, We form an issue to negotiate and reach some rules.”
Wang He said that in the Indo-Pacific, the issue of maritime security is talking about the CCP. The South China Sea has become the main international shipping route. Several ASEAN countries and the CCP have been having disputes over the South China Sea issue. The code of conduct in the South China Sea was originally discussed in 2021, but now it has been postponed due to the epidemic. There are still many differences in the code of conduct in the South China Sea. Now comes the critical moment. The United States has rich experience in this area and can support ASEAN countries. But the United States cannot be directly involved in this matter. The United States is a third party.
Does the CCP threaten that ASEAN countries will choose sides in advance?
Before the summit, the CCP made frequent moves for fear of loosening relations with ASEAN countries.
Hong Kong-based Ming Pao, a pro-Beijing Hong Kong media, commented on May 11 that the ASEAN leader in this Washington summit is Cambodia, which claims to have an “hardcore” friendship with the CCP.
The article said that although Kao Kim Hourn, an adviser to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, stated that Cambodia would not “choose sides” between China and the United States, China is obviously a little worried about this. The video meeting with Foreign Minister Bra Sokon expressed his unease about the changes in Southeast Asia, which led to speculation about what happened recently in China-Cambodia relations.
Wang Yi also had a video meeting with Indonesia’s coordinator of cooperation with China and Coordinating Minister Luhut last week, calling for joint maintenance of “peace and stability.”
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Prayut visited the United States this time, and there were also voices from pro-Communist forces in the country who were worried that they would offend the CCP and Russia, and even suggested that Prayuth arrange a visit to China and Russia immediately after returning to China.
The Taiwan Democracy Lab, a think tank located in Taipei, released its “China Index” project report on April 25, which lasted six months last year. Among 36 countries and regions in the world, Southeast Asia was improperly influenced by the CCP. the deepest area. The worst victims were Cambodia first, Singapore second, Thailand third, Philippines sixth and Malaysia eighth.
Cambodian ruler Hun Sen has been very close to Beijing in recent years. China’s investment and bilateral trade volume still ranks first in Cambodia. In February 2020, when the CCP virus (new crown virus) outbreak first broke out, he personally visited Beijing to show his support.
However, after the Russian-Ukrainian war, Hun Sen publicly condemned Russia, and Cambodia also voted in favor of the UN resolution condemning Russia, which is very different from China’s position. Meanwhile, U.S.-Cambodia relations have improved significantly recently. Washington donated 3 million doses of new seedlings to Cambodia and sent a US business delegation to visit Phnom Penh. In addition, Japan-Cambodia bilateral relations have been upgraded to a “comprehensive strategic partnership”, and the EU has also donated seven patrol boats to Cambodia to help Cambodia “fight maritime crimes”.
Chen Weijian, editor-in-chief of Beijing Spring, told The Epoch Times that ASEAN countries may all change, so the CCP is very worried. But the CCP actually has better relations with Cambodia than with Pakistan. Although the meeting between the United States and ASEAN is obviously aimed at the CCP regime, the variables of the CCP and Cambodia have not yet been seen.
“Hun Sen is now approaching the United States according to the development of the entire international situation, but he will never offend the CCP, and the CCP cannot do without Cambodia,” he said.
As for Cambodia’s position in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Chen Weijian said that on the Ukraine issue, the West, Russia and the Chinese Communist Party are fighting for systems. As long as you are an autocratic regime, you are the target of the struggle of the United States. Cambodia and these countries are all autocratic regimes. If it doesn’t turn around, as the CCP’s little brother, it may become the target of US strikes. Cambodia has actually seen this for a long time.
He believes that Hun Sen was a rebel from the Khmer Rouge at that time. Although he is also a dictator, there is still a big difference compared to the Communist regime. He will not completely stand in the position of the CCP. After all, the Khmer Rouge was cultivated by the CCP in the past.
As for Thailand, it is very special. Chen Weijian believes that the real relationship between Thailand and the CCP is not very good, but it is not a choice between the United States and China. Thailand is a transit point for the CCP’s intelligence. It has been so for many years. Thailand’s own protection is not very strict.
“The Myanmar military government has a very good relationship with the Chinese regime. This is a very headache for the United States.” Chen Weijian said.
Wang He also said that Cambodia’s status is very important. The CCP has infiltrated it for a long time. It is now a rotating member of ASEAN. The CCP wants it to come forward and do something, such as passing the “Code of Conduct in the South China Sea”.
In December last year, Cambodia’s “Cambodia-China Times” reported that Prime Minister Hun Sen stated that Cambodia would work hard to promote the signing of the “Code of Conduct in the South China Sea” (COC) during its chairmanship of ASEAN.
Wang He said: “It is difficult for the United States to leverage it. Because Hun Sen is also a dictator, he is somewhat resistant to American democracy, but his natural affinity with the CCP is only out of interest or consideration of the international situation. , he took advantage of the superficiality and asked for some benefits on both sides, but it is unlikely that he wants to distance himself from the CCP.”
Reuters also quoted analysts earlier as saying that even if ASEAN countries share the same concerns about the Chinese regime as the United States, they may still have reservations about U.S. ties given their economic ties with Beijing.
Kao Kim Hourn, an adviser to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, told Reuters that Cambodia would not “choose sides” between Washington and Beijing, even as U.S. investment in the country was growing.
Analysis: U.S. will not force ASEAN to choose sides
Wang He said that ASEAN countries are also divided, such as the AUKUS alliance against the United States, Britain and Australia, and the war against Russia and Ukraine, but at the same time these countries with different histories and cultures can unite in coping with common challenges.
He said that ASEAN is a small country and is always afraid of the CCP, so he must try his best to bring the United States in and use the United States to balance China’s power, but this does not mean that he has distanced himself from the CCP.
At an online summit with ASEAN last October, Biden said the U.S. would begin discussions on developing the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).
In addition, the US-ASEAN summit was held before Biden’s visit to South Korea and Japan from May 20 to 24. During this trip, Biden will meet with the leaders of the “Quad Security Dialogue” (Quad, also known as the Quad Alliance) – Australia, India and Japan – Meet, the Quartet expresses concern over China’s expansionary ambitions in Asia and around the world.
In November this year, Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand will host the ASEAN summit, the G20 summit and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit respectively.
Wang He said that this time the United States held a meeting with ASEAN, and there are also internal criticisms, because many ASEAN countries are not democratic countries. The US government held this meeting under pressure to counter the CCP. For the first time in decades, ASEAN heads of state have been invited to the United States for a meeting because the region’s strategic importance has gradually increased.
Wang He said that in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, ASEAN is the center, and in other places, the big country is the center and the small country is dominated. In the Indo-Pacific region, the small country dominates the big country.
“It is actually a miracle that ASEAN has been given a relatively loose space for strategic activities under the condition of mutual checks and balances between the major powers of China, Russia and Japan.”
Wang He believes that both the US and China are trying to win over ASEAN and put some pressure on the ASEAN, but the pressure will not be great. The United States also knows where its weaknesses lie, because the economic relationship between China and ASEAN is too close. However, the ASEAN countries themselves are not at ease with the CCP, and there is still a problem of disputes in the South China Sea.
“So the US’s statement to ASEAN is not to force them to stand in line, but the US will support him and establish rules-based international relations. The US and ASEAN reach a consensus, which means supporting ASEAN in fighting hegemony and the CCP. The US has actually done a lot of substantive work. action.” Wang He said.
Responsible editor: Li Qiong