Il Middle East it’s on fire again, but this time there’s a big risk. The new front is made up of two nations, theIran e Israel, whose leaders need to flex their military muscles. For both, war is in fact essential. Netanyahu he needs it to stay in power and dodge the law and investigations into how the October 7 tragedy was handled; the Iranian theocracy, which has always fed on hatred towards Israel, sees in the conflict and the defense of Gaza the legitimation of its leadership in the Muslim world, a record it disputes with Riyadh.
The West, and in particular the United States, find it impossible to avoid the escalation of the conflict. However, the attempts at pacification, especially those aimed at blocking Israel’s war response to the Iranian attack of a few days ago, confirm not only the weakness of American democracy but also that of Western democracies; the role of spectators in the opening of a new anti-Israeli front a few steps from the Old Continent clashes with the image of power of democratic Europe.
There are many reflections on this matter, first of all the existential disconnection of the current Israeli government from its traditional allies and historical supporters. As those running the war in Gaza have made clear to the world, Israel does what it wants, not what Washington or Brussels suggest. An attitude that puts the White House in serious difficulty just a few months before the presidential elections. In the US there is the feeling that Biden appears politically weakened due to uncertainty about what policy to follow in the Gaza war and the irrelevance of Washington’s suggestions in relation to the war between Iran and Israel. In democratic America there is an air of concern and there are those who are starting to talk about the need for a radical change on the liberal front. The impossibility of pacifying the Middle East and putting an end to the war in Gaza, therefore, could paradoxically facilitate the rise to the White House of Trump, an individual who presents himself to the public as the strong man, capable of managing any crisis – from that of immigrants to that of the homeless, from the victims of the opioid epidemic to the Middle Eastern crisis. The reason? Trump has always projected the image of a politician capable of making uncomfortable decisions.
Of course this is all part of great illusion of his politics, but in a moment like this, of political directional uncertainty, this message could seem real.
The escalation of war in the Middle East will also impact elections in Kingdom United. After openly supporting Israel in the aftermath of October 7, for a few weeks the leaders of the Labor Party have transformed themselves into defenders of the Palestinians in Gaza. Labor thus presents itself in clear opposition to Sunak’s government, working for an immediate ceasefire. A move possibly winning if the war spread like wildfire in the region.
Finally, on an economic level, the opening of the new war front will result in a surge in prices of petrolium and therefore inflation, which in turn will prevent the long-awaited cut in interest rates. At the Fed we are now talking about directional change: the hypothesis of a rate increase in the coming months is no longer so absurd. For those who pay attention to political events but also for those who get lost in the depths of the diplomacy of the incompetent people who govern much of the world, the idea that interest rates will move upwards at the end of June could also influence the vote in elections Europeans and undermine the current majority in the European Parliament.
The U-turn would confirm what many think: that the policy pursued by Brussels is as unsuccessful as that pursued by Washington. The risk is the return of cheap populism Trump-style.
The article There is a big risk with the clash between Israel and Iran: US and EU policies are a failure comes from Il Fatto Quotidiano.