Disappointment today from the United States with US GDP growing ‘only’ by 6.5% annualized in the 2nd quarter against the expected + 8.4%. Consumption, however, was once again extremely robust at 11.8% annualized. On the negative side, investment fell by 3.5%, led by residential investment (-9.8%, as high prices most likely discouraged housing spending. Inventories (-1.13 pp) and net exports (-0.44 pp) reduced the overall figure for quarterly growth, as did public spending (-0.27 pp).
“Overall – remarks Christian Scherrmann, DWS US Economist – today’s disappointment should be taken with some caution, as consumption remains very strong in the second quarter and we expect the recovery to proceed further looking ahead. In line with this, we we expect other economic variables, such as the labor market variables, to catch up in the coming months “. “This should form the basis for the Fed to consider a gradual reduction in monetary accommodation measures by the end of this year,” concludes Scherrmann.