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Original title: Crude oil brief comment: The overall decline in US oil inventories continues to support the international oil price in the oil futures market to rise to a two-week high
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information
1.U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories have fallen, and the market is worried about supply shortages
2.Worried that the spread of the new crown virus variant delta will affect demand, Deutsche Bank lowers its Brent crude oil price forecast
3.Worried about inflation, the U.S. stock market hit a record high intraday
Worried about supply shortages, the overall decline in US crude and refined oil inventories continued to support the sentiment in the oil futures market. European and American crude oil futures continued to rise to two-week highs. The Dow and Standard & Poor’s intraday record highs also strengthened the sentiment in the oil futures market. Thursday (July 29) New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Light Oil September 2021 futures settlement price was US$73.62 per barrel, up US$1.23/barrel from the previous trading day, or 1.7%, and the trading range was US$72.26-71.68. /Barrel; London Intercontinental Exchange’s September 2021 Brent crude oil futures settlement price was US$76.05 per barrel, an increase of US$1.31/barrel or 1.8% from the previous trading day, and the trading range was US$74.63-76.15/barrel.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that due to the impact of reduced imports and decreased production, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 4.089 million barrels as of the week of July 23, gasoline inventories and distillate oil also declined, while U.S. distillate inventories decreased by 3.088 million barrels during the same period. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.253 million barrels, basically the same level as before the epidemic. U.S. crude oil processing has declined for four consecutive weeks, falling below 16 million barrels per day for the first time since the end of May. ANZ Bank said in a report that the decline in US crude oil inventories indicates that the increase in cases of the new crown virus delta variant has no effect on the liquidity of the crude oil market.
However, the spread of the delta variant of the new crown virus continues to put pressure on the market. According to the latest real-time statistics of WHO, as of 18:17 on July 29, Central European Daylight Time (0:17 on July 30, Beijing time), there were a total of 195,886,929 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide, and a total of 4,189,148 deaths. On the 29th, there were 595,149 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide, and 8,804 new deaths. Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said in a client report that the price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach US$65 per barrel in 2022, not in the short term. It is estimated that there will be a daily surplus of 1.4 million to 2 million barrels in the oil market in 2022, depending on how OPEC and its production reduction allies restore closed capacity. If OPEC and its production reduction allies do not postpone the original schedule to resume production until 2023, Brent crude oil is expected to have more downside risks. Deutsche Bank lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for the second half of the year to US$72 per barrel. Speculative interest is expected to weaken after the meeting of OPEC and its production reduction allies, but the market is still supported by a lack of an average daily supply of 900,000 barrels for the rest of this year.
Analysts pointed out that on a global scale, if the new crown cases and the slow vaccination rate further consolidate the structural changes in demand, it may not be until next year before it can return to the pre-epidemic demand level.
The Fed said in its latest policy statement on Wednesday that despite the rise in new infections, the US economic recovery is still on track. Affected by this, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up on Thursday, among which the Dow and the S&P 500 index narrowed their gains after hitting record highs in intraday trading. As of the close, the US S&P 500 index rose 0.42% to 4,419.15 points; the Nasdaq index rose 0.11% to 14,778.26 points; the Dow Jones index rose 0.44% to 35084.53 points.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s report predicts that in August 2021, the seven key shale oil producing areas in the United States will produce an average of 7.907 million barrels of crude oil per day, an increase of 42,000 barrels from the revised July 2021 crude oil production volume. The monthly crude oil production was revised to 7.865 million barrels, compared with the original estimate of 7.803 million barrels. Among them, the average daily production of Bakken shale oil in North Dakota will be reduced to 1.113 million barrels, which is an average decrease of 3,000 barrels from the revised July 2021. The daily crude oil production in July 2021 will be revised to 1.116 million barrels. It is estimated to be 1.098 million barrels. In August 2021, the average daily production of shale oil in Eagle Ford, Texas, will be reduced to 1.039 million barrels, which is 40 million barrels lower than the revised July 2021. The daily crude oil production in July 2021 will be revised to 1.043 million barrels. Barrels, originally estimated at 1.023 million barrels; the average daily production of shale oil in the Permian Basin in August 2021 will increase to 4.7 million barrels, an increase of 53,000 barrels per day over the revised July 2021, crude oil in July 2021 The average daily output was 4.647 million barrels, compared with the original estimate of 4.663 million barrels. It is estimated that in August 2021, the average daily production of the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma and the Niobrara shale oil area in the Rocky Mountains will be 351,000 barrels and 537,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 3,000 barrels respectively. It is estimated that the average daily production of Appalachian shale oil, including the Marcellus and Utica regions, will be 133,000 barrels per day in August 2021, an average increase of 2,000 barrels per day over July 2021. The average daily shale oil production in the Hainesville area is expected to stabilize at 34,000 barrels in August 2021.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration report also showed that in June there were 6,252 unfinished oil wells in these seven regions, a decrease of 269 from the number in May 2019. Among them, there were 2475 uncompleted oil wells in the Permian Basin in June, 123 fewer than the number in May 2019; 971 uncompleted oil wells in the Yingtan area in June, 41 fewer than the number in May 2019; 628 in the Bakken area in June , A decrease of 28; in June, 844 in the Anadarko Basin, a decrease of 19; in June, the Hainesville area remained at 392; in June, there were 581 in the Appalachian region, a decrease of 17; in June, Naue There are 361 seats in the Bralle area, a decrease of 41 seats.
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