Last week review:
1) Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council: Next year’s economic work will stick to stability and seek progress while maintaining stability. 2) Guangdong plans to invest approximately 108.355 billion yuan in cities and towns in the province during the “14th Five-Year Plan” periodGasinfrastructure. 3) The 18 departments jointly issued the “Work Plan for “Waste-Free City” Construction in the “14th Five-Year” Period” to vigorously develop energy-saving and low-carbon buildings, and prefabricated buildings will have huge development opportunities.
This week’s view: The growth rate of general infrastructure investment has turned negative, and the marginal improvement of real estate. In the first November of 2021, nationwideInvestment in fixed assetsThe completed amount was 49.41 trillion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year +5.20%, and the growth rate was +2.6pct compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the acceleration of manufacturing investment. The manufacturing investment completed in the first 11 months exceeded 21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of +13.7%. It is expected to hit the highest value since 2015. In terms of infrastructure, the downward trend in recent months has continued. The cumulative completed investment in general infrastructure has reached nearly 17 trillion yuan, -0.17% year-on-year. The cumulative growth rate turned negative for the first time during the year, and the negative growth continued in a single month, and the rate of decline was slightly higher than that of the previous month. expand. In the subdivided industries, the public growth rate of water conservancy and environment has turned negative. The cumulative year-on-year growth of delivery, storage, post and electric heating gas and water was +1.1% and +0.2% respectively, basically the same as the same period last year. Electricity, heating, gas and water played a huge role in the growth of infrastructure investment last year (full-year growth rate of +17.6%), and this year’s growth has slowed down. In terms of real estate, both investment and construction commenced and completed in November showed significant improvements. The cumulative investment amount was +6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative growth rate of the area under construction and completion was +16.2% and -9.1% respectively, and the cumulative growth rate of sales amount and sales area was 4.8. %, 9.5%, although the growth rate has slowed slightly compared with October, the year-on-year growth rate in a single month has improved significantly. -twenty one%. In November, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Monitoring and Evaluation of the Development of Affordable Rental Housing in 2021”, proposing to vigorously increase the supply of affordable rental housing during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, and strive to increase the amount of new affordable rental housing. The proportion of total housing supply reaches 30% and above. We continue to emphasize investment opportunities brought about by increased investment in affordable housing, and focus on recommending the prefabricated industry chain. Among them, according to our calculations, prefabricated decoration may benefit the most.
Infrastructure data tracking: 1) Special bonds: The issuance of special bonds this week was 2.809 billion yuan. As of December 18, 2021, the cumulative issuance was 3,1644.2 billion yuan, a cumulative -11.55% year-on-year. Urban investment bonds: The issuance of urban investment bonds is 50.790 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is -43.767 billion yuan. So far, the accumulated net financing amount is 1.884885 billion yuan, which is -4.36% year-on-year. 2) There is no major approval from the Development and Reform Commission this week. 3) Company order tracking: A total of 15 companies won 90 orders this week, with a total amount of 246.472 billion yuan. Investment suggestion: key recommendationSichuan Road and Bridge、Yasha shares、Jinggong Steel Structure、Southeast grid, Recommended by other stocksHonglu Steel Structure、Chinese Architecture、China Railway、China Railway Construction, It is recommended to pay attention toFuhuang Steel Structure、Dongzhu Ecological、China Railway Assembly、Shenzhen Ruijie。
Market review:
1) Industry: This week, the market fell by 0.93%, the GEM fell by 0.28%, and the construction industry rose by 4.17%. It is a strong performer in the entire market; most of the sub-sectors rose, and the top five increase was garden engineering (-6.03%). Other professional engineering (5.35%), chemical engineering (4.57%), architectural decoration (4.17%),Decoration(4.15%)。
2) Individual stocks: A total of 94 stocks rose this week. The top five companies areChina Aluminum International(60.92%)，Huadian Heavy Industry(20.53%)，Bauing shares(19.88%)，Yanhua Intelligent(16.67%)，Chengdu Road and Bridge(15.38%); the top five companies with declines areChong Hing Resources(-9.67%)，Baili Technology(-4.07%)，Huayang International(-2.65%)，Academy of Construction Sciences(-2.49%)，Dongzhu Ecological(-2.44%)。
On a monthly basis (20211130~20211218), a total of 99 stocks have risen, and a total of 83 stocks have risen year-to-date.
3) Fund tracking: From a macro perspective, the spot exchange rate of USD to RMB this week was 6.3742, and the closing price of last Friday was 6.3704. The 10-year Treasury bond yield to maturity rose to 2.8512%, and the closing price last Friday was 2.8426%, an increase of 0.86bp from last week. The one-month SHIBOR was 2.3680%, last Friday’s closing price was 2.3600%, an increase of 0.80bp from last week.
4) Other: A total of 7 companies happened this weekLarge transactions, 9 importantshareholderIncrease or decrease holdings, 15 positionsExecutivesIncrease or decrease holdings.
Risk warning: The growth rate of infrastructure investment has fallen short of expectations, and the degree of policy advancement has fallen short of expectations.
(Article source: HuachuangSecurities）
.