Inflation expectations for the euro area “have been further revised upwards for the entire 2022-2024 horizon” with the price trend for next year jumping by more than two percentage points, from 3.6% to 5.8%, and that even net of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, it rises by more than one point from 2.9% to 3.9%. This is what we read in the ECB’s “Survey of professional forecasters” for the fourth quarter of 2022. Inflation is expected to stand at 5.8% and 2.4% for 2023 and 2024 respectively and at 2.2% longer-term, a number that did not support a pause in the current upturn. of rates. “According to the respondents, the upward revisions mainly reflect a combination of higher energy and food prices” but also “the spread on the prices of other sectors”.
EU-19: confidence in economic and employment prospects is waning
The confidence of businesses and consumers in the Eurozone countries on the prospects of the economy and employment drops: in October the ESI index recorded a decline of 1.1 points, reaching the lowest level since November 2020. Germany and Italy have the largest decreases were recorded, equal to one and 0.9 percentage points respectively.
In France the rate rises to 6.7%
In France, the inflation rate rose to 6.7% in October compared to the same month in 2021. The rise after two months of slowdown: in July the rate was at 6.1% in August at 5.9% and in September at 5.6%. According to Insee data, this is the highest level since 1985 and is higher than analysts’ expectations.
Germany, inflation rises to 10.4% in October
Inflation in Germany accelerated further in October. Consumer prices are 10.4% higher than in the same month of the previous year, as reported by provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office. In September, the annual inflation rate was 10%.
Germany’s gross domestic product grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, according to the initial estimate. Economic growth, contrary to forecasts, which indicated a decline of 0.2% for the period. In the previous quarter, GDP had risen by 0.1 percent.