Financial Associated Press, October 23 (Editor Yao Hui)The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages are freshly released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: The landing of four major disturbances will bring buying points on the right side of the monthly market
Several key disturbances will be implemented one after another next week, and it is expected to bring the right buying point of this round of monthly repair market. Three positive signs of improvement in the A-share market have appeared one after another, and the comprehensive repair market is in the first half of the policy-driven market. More emphasis on flexibility. First of all, the four uncertain factors will be implemented one after another next week. The delayed economic data is expected to be released next week, and the expectation of the economy bottoming out is further clarified. After the centralized disclosure of the third quarter report at the end of the month, investors’ concerns about the risk of the statement will also be realized. The peak of interest rate panic has passed, and the stage of rapid one-way fluctuation of the RMB has passed. Secondly, three signs of improvement in the A-share market have emerged. The transaction volume has gradually increased. Active private placement positions have dropped to the lowest level since the end of April. Funding sentiment has improved. The market has also ushered in intensive policy catalysts in the near future.
The allocation ideas for this round of market repairs that have lasted for several months can be divided into two stages. It is recommended that until November, the focus should be on products with catalytic policies and flexible valuations. After November, there will be room for next year to switch valuations and The varieties with strong performance certainty are launched. For the selection of specific varieties at present, it is recommended to pay attention to: ①In the field of growth and manufacturing, focus on the white horse leaders in the semiconductor and military industries that have been continuously adjusted before and have room for valuation switching next year, and Xinchuang in the independent and controllable field under the environment of increasing sanctions in the external technology field , as well as new chemical materials with weak label attributes and still relatively high cost performance. ②The pharmaceutical industry focuses on traditional Chinese medicine with high cost performance, medical equipment benefiting from new medical infrastructure, and medical equipment and services that fully digest valuation and policy concerns. ③The vocational education sector driven by the priority policy of people’s livelihood and employment after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
Huaan Securities: The market does not need to be pessimistic about the balanced allocation of the four main lines
Looking forward to the market outlook, although US stocks have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding this week, and external risk suppression has been eased, sustained mitigation and improvement still requires an environment in which U.S. bond interest rates fall in stages, which is yet to be observed and confirmed. Therefore, market risk appetite A clear boost needs to wait for a clearer signal. However, at the current position of the market, there is no need to be pessimistic. First, the positive trend of continued marginal improvement of the economy has not changed. Second, there is a strong certainty that the macro liquidity will maintain a positive, loose and abundant environment.
In terms of configuration, the main line of the current market is still unclear, the rotation speed of the industry is accelerating, and the balanced configuration will continue to be maintained. We can mainly focus on the first is to increase the layout of the medium and long-term growth hot and high-prosperity tracks, and the medium-term style is still dominant; the second is some consumer goods that have short-term strong catalysis and long-term long-term logic, and have been deeply adjusted in the early stage; The third is to grasp Oil transportation and traditional energy have certainty and high prosperity opportunities in the fourth quarter; fourth, the continuous introduction of real estate incremental policies.
Haitong Securities: Growth sectors such as new energy and digital economy may be more resilient
Taking companies that disclosed pre-announcements/reports as samples, the 22Q3 STAR Market performed well, and the growth rate of earnings continued to increase. Structurally, the strong will remain strong, consumption will improve slightly, the low-carbon economy will maintain a high growth rate, and the growth rate of digital economy performance will remain high. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has established the main tone of development, and the implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth and ensuring the delivery of buildings is expected to catalyze the second wave of opportunities in the fourth quarter, and growth sectors such as new energy and digital economy may be more resilient.
Guotai Junan: Focus on the theme of energy and technology nuggets independent security
Global macro risks continue to rise, and investment should focus on certainty. The theme of independent security has strong certainty and has medium and long-term allocation value. The autonomy of energy and technology is the two main investment lines of the theme of independent security.
Recommended topics for independent security: 1. Energy engineering/development 2. Energy equipment 3. Energy transmission 4. Military equipment/materials 5. Semiconductor equipment/materials 6. Domestic software.
CITIC Construction Investment: The mid-term bottom area has been carefully crafted in the short term
Waiting for U.S. bond interest rates to peak, the market still needs to be patient and wait for external liquidity to stabilize. Structural differentiation, small and medium-sized caps are still dominant.
The performance of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” in traditional industries has been slightly dull, and the infrastructure chain has accelerated after the epidemic; real estate continues to be a drag; under the background of weak economic demand, frequent epidemics, and stricter policies, consumption recovery is also slow; structural bright spots The core indicators of new energy vehicles, photovoltaics and other industries still maintained a high year-on-year increase, but they were basically within expectations. Judging from the adjustment of profit forecasts of various industries in October, the cumulative adjustment rate was weaker than that in the same period in September, and the adjustment rate among various industries has also converged. Considering that the industrial cycle and the marginal change of the economic elasticity are not large, it is recommended to “see more and move less” in the industry allocation, and continue to focus on the weak correlation direction of the total economic demand: (1) stable domestic demand and long-term logic + policy improvement: medicine; (2) Structural prosperity: wind/light/storage, military industry, etc.; (3) Growth-oriented independent and controllable: Xinchuang, semiconductor equipment/materials, military industry, etc.
Cinda Securities: May return to early July highs within the quarter
After July, economic expectations fell again, causing the Shanghai 50 and other indexes to weaken first. Since late August, due to the impact of the epidemic, US stock adjustments, and style changes, the indexes weakened again. We believe the correction at the index level is nearing its end. Beginning in October, there may be a replenishment of private capital positions, continued growth stabilization policies, and easing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. The index may stop falling and reverse again in a V-shaped manner, and may return to the highs in early July within the quarter. After this quarterly reversal is completed, the earnings of listed companies will not improve immediately, so there may be some retracement at the end of the year or early next year, but the probability will be much smaller than the adjustment in January-April and July-September.
Industry allocation suggestion: growth will rebound, and the value will exert force in the future. From an annual point of view, the market’s style has been biased towards value. Whether it is US stocks or A shares, the general growth style will lead to a change in style after three consecutive years. Once the change occurs, the value style will last for at least one and a half years. (1) In the early stage of the index reversal, some growth rebounded from oversold. Although the market’s style has been biased towards value, due to the large decline in growth stocks in the past two months, growth stocks in the initial stage of index reversal will also have a good rebound. Medicines and computers that have rebounded the most in the past two weeks belong to this category. (2) It is possible to over-allocate financial real estate within half a year. The excess returns of bank real estate mostly appear in the late stage of economic downturn to the early stage of economic recovery. Before the economy is determined to improve, it is more likely to generate excess returns. Non-silver valuation positions are better, and with the reversal of the index, the follow-up strength may exceed bank real estate. (3) The logical deduction of consumption is not sufficient. After the epidemic, investors began to gradually expect the economic recovery. Although this recovery process was affected by the twists and turns of real estate sales, the general direction can continue. It is recommended to give priority to hotels and airlines with optimized production capacity after the epidemic. With the recent rebound in the index, home appliances with high economic relevance can be gradually added. (4) Cyclical stocks have good long-term logic, and in the short-term, they are suffering the impact of a possible recession in the U.S. economy.
Western Securities: There are still bumps in the short term, and the bottom of the large level is gradually approaching
Judging from the historical experience of the past four market bottoms, the policy bottom often occurs more than a month ahead of the market bottom. As the third quarterly report disclosure season is approaching, and expectations of overseas interest rate hikes are still at a high level, the short-term market is still turbulent. Economic and market policies are gradually advancing, and the bottom of the major level is gradually approaching.
Grasp the valuation switching market of the value sector. As the disclosure period of the third quarterly report approaches, the valuation switching market of the pharmaceutical, home appliances, and food and beverage industries is entering a period of layout on the left. With the gradual advancement of future policies, the agriculture, semiconductor, innovation and military industries closely related to energy and information security are still worthy of attention. In addition, pay attention to vitamins, fertilizers and pesticides, titanium dioxide and investment opportunities in sub-sectors in the manufacturing industry that are expected to benefit from “European substitution”. And themed opportunities like virtual reality, gaming, digital currency, and more.
CICC: A-share valuation is low, focus on follow-up catalysts
Some indicators show that the market has shown a characteristic of being at the bottom, and the overall valuation of the current market is relatively low, so pay attention to the follow-up catalysts. We believe that although the current market is still concerned about the impact of local epidemics on consumption disruption, weak real estate investment and sales, overseas recession that may affect China’s exports, and the impact of the geopolitical situation, domestic policies are still actively exerting efforts to stabilize growth, and the exchange rate of RMB against USD Although there are fluctuations, it is also close to historical lows, and the current asset prices have implied relatively pessimistic expectations. The market turnaround needs to pay attention to the subsequent mitigation of the main contradictions and more potential catalysts, that is, whether the transmission of the previous policy efforts to the real economy can be more smoothly, especially the domestic real estate and consumption and other areas of policy support for the improvement of the main contradictions are still effective. Whether it can be reflected, the impact of overseas tightening and geo-risks has been significantly alleviated.
In the medium term, China’s domestic demand has great potential, the current policy constraints are relatively small, and there is ample room for reform and potential exploration. As long as the policy is timely and appropriate, the market opportunities will outweigh the risks from the perspective of 6-12 months. Structurally, stability is the main focus, and sectors with low valuations or low valuations with policy support are the focus of allocation, and growth sectors focus on structural opportunities after previous adjustments.
It is recommended that the allocation should still focus on areas with low valuations, low macro-correlations or acceptable levels of prosperity and policy support. The current overall expectation of the growth sector is not low, and the positions are still relatively heavy. Systemic allocation opportunities may still need to be observed. To seize structural opportunities from the bottom up, the opportunity to switch from a strategic style to growth requires attention to overseas inflation and stable growth in China. Progress. During the peak period of performance disclosure in the third quarterly report, pay attention to the sub-sectors whose performance may exceed expectations.
Minsheng Securities: A rebound in dollar-denominated commodities is brewing
The most certain future is commodities that have already factored in too many recession expectations. Faced with the expectation that global central banks will slow down interest rate hikes, a new round of outbreaks may be ushered in at any time. Investors should stand where they are most resilient and wait for the wind to come.
Maintain the annual level recommendation for the corresponding industries of bulk commodities: oil, non-ferrous metals (gold, copper, aluminum, molybdenum), resource transportation (oil transportation, dry bulk) and coal; growth concerns: national defense and military industry, Xinchuang.
Industrial Securities: The bottom area loves to pay attention to three main lines in late autumn
The current pessimistic expectations at home and abroad have been reflected in market valuations and positions. When overseas risk factors gradually ease, and the main line of the domestic market becomes clearer under the guidance of the “Tenth National Congress”, the market is expected to usher in a wave of “love in late autumn” recovery.
Structurally, it focuses on the “new semi-military” and medicine related to advanced manufacturing, as well as the “Xinchuang” and “new infrastructure” that can usher in further proliferation next year or even in the next few years, and so on. 1) Advanced manufacturing such as “new semi-military” and medicine: the congestion level is still at a low level. Recently, the main capital has seen a net inflow inflection point, and multi-channel funds have increased their positions. And according to our exclusively constructed leading indicator of analyst forecast revision strength, it’s still in an uptrend, pointing to a fix that isn’t over. 2) “Xinchuang”: With the continuous expansion of the “2+8+N” ecology in the national strategy to N, Xinchuang is expected to be fully applied to the consumer market, and will be in the second and third echelons of telecommunications, transportation, electricity, crude oil, etc. The penetration rate of the industry will also accelerate in the next few years. 3) “New infrastructure”: In the next few years, under the trend of the development of the digital economy, China’s information technology will usher in the rise of technology in many fields such as basic software, basic hardware, industry application software, and upgrading and transformation of the manufacturing industry. wave. The follow-up focuses on new infrastructure, digital industrialization, and industrial Internet, smart cities, smart agriculture, and smart transportation that empower traditional industries.