Our stock market experts take a look at the new stock market week. The central banks Fed and ECB are providing important impetus with their rate hikes. This will snap the Dax out of its lethargy.
Share this article
In the past week, the stock exchange barometer had the voltage value of a green mural. The leading German index was slightly lethargic, mostly just below the 16,000 point mark, and the number of reports and forecasts was manageable. “As long as investors don’t know whether or not the US Federal Reserve will at least pause its rate-hike cycle, they’ll just pause the stock market,” commented capital markets strategist Jürgen Molnar of RoboMarkets.
Almost all financial experts assume that the US Federal Reserve this Wednesday evening (local time). policy rate not increased. More interesting is the question of how she positions herself with regard to future steps. Will it go up again in July?
The US base interest rate is currently 5.25 percent, but so far the sometimes drastic interest rate increases in the USA have had little effect on inflation. This “resilience of the economy” is a result of various after-effects of the pandemic, according to Helaba. “However, these are now on the wane. So monetary policy has not lost its impact, but this time it is obviously taking longer to become visible.”
Die ECB wants to raise the key interest rate – but for how long?
The ECB, in turn, has announced that it will raise the key interest rate by 25 percentage points from the current 3.25 percent this Thursday. Here, too, investors are eagerly awaiting the signals that the ECB will give for the second half of the year. Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, does not expect further interest rate hikes here. Inflation has fallen significantly since the autumn to 6.1 percent and the economy is weakening. “Moreover, many members of the Governing Council of the ECB see a key interest rate of 3.5 percent as relatively high.”
On Tuesday, the ZEW will announce its economic expectations for Germany for June. The latest figures on industrial production will be announced on Wednesday and final consumer prices in the euro area on Friday.