Airlines like Swiss are flying profits again after the corona crisis. But they will not lower the ticket prices in 2023. In 2024, flying is likely to become somewhat cheaper in the short term, before companies increase prices again due to climate investments.
Anyone who is currently booking a weekend on the Mediterranean and who is planning to jet to New York via the ascent will quickly notice that flight prices have risen sharply. Long-haul flights, which three years ago were still available for CHF 500, sometimes exceed the CHF 1,000 threshold. Even with low-cost airlines, the flight to a popular destination costs a three-digit amount instead of a two-digit amount.
Pressure from demand from Asia
The high price is justified on the one hand by increased fuel costs due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and global inflation. On the other hand, despite economic and political uncertainties, people’s desire to travel is still very high.
At the same time, the airlines have not yet fully increased their capacities. Many planes are still mothballed and newly purchased planes have not yet arrived. That’s why the number of seats on popular routes tends to be too small.
The opening of China and other Asian countries will mean that even more people who are hungry for travel will want to get to the currently scarce aircraft seats. That’s why prices will remain high this summer, says aviation expert Andreas Wittmer from the University of St. Gallen.
Recovery already in 2024
However, the price increase has “reached the peak,” says Wittmer. Not only is Swiss significantly expanding its long-haul capacities for the winter flight schedule, all other airlines are also gradually bringing back their mothballed aircraft. The aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, which had long struggled with production problems caused by the pandemic, would also deliver new aircraft again.
Wittmer expects that customers can expect prices to relax in 2024. The international aviation association IATA also estimates that in 2024 most flight connections will return to pre-pandemic levels. The competition could increase again on certain routes, which could prompt airlines to reduce prices.
It will be difficult for families
However, according to Wittmer, this recovery is short-lived. Above all on long-haul routes, prices would rise again in the medium term and then probably remain high for a long time. “In order to achieve the climate targets set by 2050, the aviation industry must invest – especially in so-called sustainable fuels.” These investments are likely to be passed on to customers via ticket prices. This would be particularly painful for families with children: “For many families, a long-haul flight will probably no longer be possible every year.”
Bargains not excluded
However: If you are flexible with travel dates and destinations and do without a certain level of comfort, you will find flights at the same time and in the future at prices as before the pandemic. There will always be an airline that comes up with a cheap offer on some route, says expert Wittmer.