The economic forecasts for Germany continue to darken. Economists expect at best mini-growth in 2024. Picture Alliance
The forecasts for the German economy are becoming even more pessimistic. Recently, both the federal government and the EU Commission lowered their outlook.
In 2023, German gross domestic product shrank by 0.3 percent. Economists expect the German economy to grow by less than one percent by 2024. The federal government still expects 0.2 percent. But there are also minus signs.
Here is an overview of the most important forecasts for German economic growth in 2024 and 2025.
The economic forecasts for Germany look poor – and have recently become even more pessimistic. Most recently, the federal government and the EU Commission lowered their economic forecast to just 0.2 and 0.3 percent economic growth.
At the turn of the year, most institutes and banks had already lowered their expectations for the 2024 economy. This year the gross domestic product (GDP) will hardly grow noticeably, if at all.
The economic forecasts are still changing quickly. This reflects the uncertainty resulting from the wars in Ukraine and Israel, but also about China’s economy. In addition, the debt judgment of the Constitutional Court and the federal government’s budget decisions are leaving their mark.
All economic forecasts for Germany
Our table shows all the relevant forecasts for the economy in Germany for 2024 and 2025. They come from the government, international organizations, Institutes, banks and associations. The forecasts refer to the change in gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the previous year.
The arrows show in which direction the forecasts were last corrected. You can sort all columns using the top field. The forecasts for the economy are currently turning downwards.
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The German economy was hit particularly hard by the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine. The high energy prices caused inflation to skyrocket in Germany. Added to this is the weakness of the global economy, China and thus German exports. The distortions go beyond the economic situation. Germany’s business model as an export-oriented country, with cheap energy from Russia and strong sales markets in China, is in question. The economic forecasts are therefore likely to remain volatile.
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It is positive that the labor market in Germany remains stable. At the same time, wages and salaries are rising faster than prices for the first time in over two years. The purchasing power of incomes therefore increases. This should support private consumption and thus the economy.
Economists speak of a recession when a country’s economic output declines in two quarters in a row. In Germany, GDP fell by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. Economists, such as those from the Ifo Institute, also expect a further decline for the first quarter of 2024. Germany would have fallen back into a technical recession.
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Labor market defies weak economy: employment is increasing again, number of unemployed is increasing less than usual