The economy in Germany is weakening. The economic forecasts are turning negative. Picture Alliance
At the end of the year, important economic institutes, the Bundesbank and several banks once again lowered their forecasts for the German economy.
After a small decline in gross domestic product this year, most economists only expect the German economy to grow by less than one percent in 2024. The federal government officially expects 1.3 percent growth.
Here is an overview of the most important forecasts for German economic growth in 2024 and 2025.
The economic forecasts for Germany look poor. The economists at most institutes and banks lowered their expectations for the 2024 economy again at the end of the year. They are mostly expecting a small decline in economic output this year. In the coming year, gross domestic product will hardly grow noticeably, if at all.
Economic forecasts are still changing quickly. This reflects the great uncertainty as a result of the wars in Ukraine and Israel. The debt judgment of the Constitutional Court and the federal government’s budget decisions also leave their mark.
Our table shows all the relevant forecasts for the economy in Germany for 2024 and 2025. They come from the government, international organizations, Institutes, banks and associations. The forecasts refer to the change in gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the previous year.
The arrows show in which direction the forecasts were last corrected. You can sort all columns using the top field.
The economic forecasts for Germany?
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The forecasts for the economy are currently turning sharply downwards. This doesn’t just apply to the current year. Economists have also become more pessimistic for 2024.
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The German economy was hit particularly hard by the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine. High energy prices caused inflation to skyrocket in Germany in 2022. Added to this is the weakness of the global economy, China and thus also German exports. The distortions affect more than just the economy. Germany’s business model as an export-oriented country, with cheap energy from Russia and strong sales markets in China, is in question. The economic forecasts are therefore likely to remain volatile.
It is positive that the labor market in Germany remains stable. At the same time, wages and salaries are rising faster than prices for the first time in two years. The purchasing power of incomes therefore increases. This should support private consumption and thus the economy.
Economists speak of a recession when a country’s economic output declines in two quarters in a row.
In the most recent forecast by the industrialized countries organization OECD, Germany is in second to last place in terms of economic growth in 2023. Only the crisis country Argentina fares worse.
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