Axa leaves Monte and earns 30 million. Mps loses 8% and takes another “no thanks” from Bpm

Axa esce da Mps

The news is one of those that arrive unexpected and lend themselves to the most varied interpretations. Axa, the French insurance company that at the end of 2022 had come to the rescue of MPS by putting 200 million on the plate for the 2.5 billion capital increase, decided to sell its stake after a few weeks. Why did he do it? Here the interpretations abound. We start from the hypothesis of an operation carried out in full agreement with the government, so much so that Axa would have immediately highlighted how the sale would have “no impact in any way on the partnership with the bank or the commitment on the Italian market… and that intends to seek representation on the bank’s new board of directors because it has no interest in influencing the Sienese institute’s long-term strategy”.

Who instead gives the government very irritated by what happened, because it would not have been made aware of what was happening and because the sudden farewell of the group led by Thomas Buberl could reinforce doubts about the future of Monte, also with respect to the international financial community that the CEO Luigi Lovaglio is trying with great difficulty to bring to the side of the Sienese bank. .

The rumors about the policies

In the absence of certainties and remaining in the field of hypotheses, it is necessary to recall the revelations – on which, however, confirmations have never arrived – of the Financial Times at the time of the raising of Mt. In fact, according to the City newspaper, Axa would have negotiated an improvement agreement with Mps for the recapitalization the distribution of insurance policies online commercial of the bank as well as an extension of the agreement which expires in 2027. While yesterday a Reuters underlined the effectiveness of the Meloni government in identifying a “suitable” Italian partner for Monte. “In recent weeks – reports the agency – the government has worked on the involvement of Banco Bpm … and is also evaluating the Unicredit hypothesis”. Hypothesis, however, immediately denied by the president of Banco Massimo Tononi: “We are not willing to pursue a merger operation with Mps”. While according to other rumors a strengthening of the bancassurance agreements between Axa and Mps would not have been well seen by the government with a view to rapprochement of the Tuscan institute with Unicredit which already has Allianz as its insurance partner.

The surplus value of Axa

While waiting to understand which is the right track to follow, let’s start again from the few certainties. The first is that Axa brought home a capital gain of more than 30 million euros. The second is that the placement took place within a few hours of the official announcement of the French decision: a sign that Bnp Paribas, the institution that placed the package, already had the agreements for the sale in hand. The third is that the placement took place in the lower part of the range, at a price of 2.33 euros per share with a 15.1% discount. The fourth is that the day after Axa’s announcement, Monte collapsed by 8.07% and retraced to 2.523 euros. The puzzle remains as to who bought the package. Most likely the shares, we are talking about 100 million shares, will be divided among various funds that believe in the Lovaglio plan or are ready to sell to a new buyer.