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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor Plus) – The central banks are not letting go of interest rates, to fight inflation that is still too high, and the consequent fears of a recession are weighing once again on global stock markets: world markets are preparing this way to close the worst week since March. After the higher-than-expected tightening announced by the Bank of England, together with the hikes made by the central banks of Switzerland, Norway and Turkey and the prospect of two further increases in the USA between now and the end of the year by the Fed, the indices of the European stock exchanges are all below parity. In fact, the FTSE MIB in Milan is losing share, as are the lists in London (FT-SE 100), Paris (CAC 40) and Frankfurt (DAX 30). Investor fears are linked to the resilience of the European economy, especially the German one. In fact, in June, Germany’s manufacturing PMI fell to 41 points, well below market expectations.
Attention, the analysts of Mps Capital Services immediately commented, has in fact shifted to the PMI data arriving from the Eurozone and the USA, «with the first indications coming from France which surprisingly showed a sharp drop in the services component which has fallen into contraction territory», just as «negative indications also came from Germany, where the manufacturing sector in particular continued to weaken (at the lowest levels since May 2020)».
In Milan Tim volatile, focus on Eni. Still down banks and oil
Another “red” session was recorded on the main Milanese index for the main banking stocks. In fact, sales are penalizing Banca Pop Er, Banco Bpm and Intesa Sanpaolo in particular. Among the worst Prysmian and Mediobanca, which filed the merger plan by incorporation of the 100% subsidiary Mb Invag (it is the vehicle set up to receive 0.1% of Generali deriving from the demerger, at the end of 2022, of the Invag holding, which had among its shareholders Ferrero, Arvedi, Gavio, Minozzi and Lavazza). The weakness of crude weighs on Saipem’s prices. The sales do not spare the giant Eni, protagonist together with the subsidiary Var of the maxi-acquisition of Neptune, with a 4.9 billion dollar operation which, in the words of Eni’s CEO, Claudio Descalzi, «will add about 4 billion cubic meters of gas to be allocated to European consumers”. Telecom Italia stock was volatile the day after the meeting of the board of directors which granted the US fund Kkr the exclusive right to negotiate the sale of the network. Utilities with Hera and Italgas went against the trend, then Amplifon and luxury with Ferrari.
In Germany PMI manufacturing and services below expectations
In June, the German PMI manufacturing index, according to preliminary data released in these hours, fell from 43.2 points in May to 41 points. The PMI services index fell from 57.2 last May to 54.1 points. These results are far below expectations: the services index was forecast at 56 points; that of manufacturing at 43.6 points. The composite index, a synthesis of the two indices, fell from 53.9 points in May to 50.8 points, below the estimates compared to the 53.5 points expected. A reading below 50, as is the case for services, indicates contraction in the sector.
FTSE Mib Stock Exchange performance
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The PMI indices of the Eurozone are also disappointing
In June, the economic indicators calculated by IHS Markit for the Eurozone also fell. The PMI manufacturing index fell from 44.8 points in May to 43.6 points, the lowest in 37 months. That of services fell from 55.1 points in May to 52.4 points. The composite index, a synthesis of the two indices, therefore fell from 52.8 points in May to 50.3 points, the lowest for five months. The data is worse than expected: the manufacturing index was expected at 44.8 points; that of services at 54.5 points.