Bank of Italy sees the Italian economy press on the accelerator and exceed the rate of 5 per cent of growth thanks to a strong increase in the second part of the year. The Economic Bulletin published today by the Bank of Italy sees GDP accelerate significantly starting from the third quarter, with an average annual growth currently estimated at 5.1 per cent; in the following two years, GDP is seen to rise at a rate of 4.4 in 2022 and 2.3 in 2023. Against this backdrop, GDP would return to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of next year. In the second quarter, growth should have accentuated at a rate of more than 1 per cent compared with the previous period.
From PNRR a positive effect of 2 points of GDP in the three-year period 2021-23
The Bank of Italy’s economic projections, which see GDP mark + 5.1% this year, + 4.4% in 2022 and + 2.3% in 2023, depend on the assumptions that the national and global health improvement is consolidated, which continue the decisive support of budgetary policy and that monetary and financial conditions remain favorable ”. The institute of via Nazionale specifies how this framework is heavily dependent on the effectiveness of the support and relaunch measures which would raise the level of GDP by about 4 percentage points accumulated in the three-year forecast period; about half of this effect is attributable to the PNRR interventions.
Elements of uncertainty with respect to growth projections are linked to the evolution of the pandemic, to the methods of implementation of the projects connected to the PNRR and to the response of consumption.
Profitability boom for banks, but beware of NPL increases
The Economic Bulletin published today by Bankitalia notes how the profitability of Italian banks grew significantly at the beginning of 2021 with a Roe of 9% at the end of the first quarter of 2021, which compares with the 1.7% recorded in the same quarter of last year. “The continuing decline in the interest margin was more than offset by the high revenues deriving from the trading activity; both operating costs and loan write-downs decreased considerably ”, notes the Economic Bulletin of the Bank of Italy, which cites the possible increase in impaired loans as an element capable of leading to a drop in Roe in the rest of the year.