Strong upward revision by the Bank of Italy of the estimates on Italian household consumption for 2021: the outlook was improved by the previously forecast growth of + 3.3%, to + 5.1%; for 2022, the outlook was instead cut from the + 5.6% estimated in the economic projections of last July to + 4.6%.
For 2023 the forecasts were left firm to an increase in consumption equal to + 2.2%. For 2024, household consumption is expected to grow by 1.5%.
For 2021, the boom in gross fixed investments is also expected at + 15.6%, better than the previous estimate, equal to + 15.2%; the outlook for 2022 was instead revised downwards from + 8.7% previously expected to + 5.5%; that for 2023 was improved by an initially expected growth of + 5% to + 6.1%, while for 2024 a growth in gross fixed investments of + 3.3% is expected.
With regard to the unemployment rate, the new Bank of Italy forecasts for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are for a rate of 9.5%, 9%, 8.9%, compared to the previous estimates of 10.5%, 10.3 %, 9.9%. For 2024, the unemployment rate is expected to contract further, to 8.7%. In the new economic projections of Palazzo Koch we read that “on the labor market it is estimated that the number of hours worked has increased this year by almost 7 percent and will continue to expand over the next three years at a pace slightly lower than that of the product. , returning to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022. The growth in the number of
employees, still contained this year, would gradually strengthen over the next three years “, with an increase in the number of employees for 2021, 2022 2023 equal to + 1%, + 1.5%, + 1%, compared to previous estimates of July equal to -0.7%, + 1.6% and + 1.8% respectively. For 2024, the increase in employment is expected at a rate of 1.3% “.
Bank of Italy specifies that “this scenario is heavily dependent on the hypotheses on the evolution of the pandemic and on the effects of the support measures, including those included in the PNRR. consumer and business confidence, hindering the recovery of economic activity. The projections also remain conditional on the full and effective implementation of the measures envisaged by the PNRR. Additional risk factors are connected with the intensity and duration of
tensions on the supply side and with the possibility of a less favorable trend in growth and world trade. Inflation could turn out to be higher than expected if energy prices were to remain at high levels for longer than assumed and if the recent strong increase in consumer prices were to be transmitted to wage dynamics “.