A Bitcoin logo on a smartphone with stock market prices in the background. Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
According to British bank Standard Chartered, headquartered in London, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
The reason: The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs is likely to lead to massive inflows and price gains.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to approve the first such ETF this Wednesday.
The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs could send the top cryptocurrency up more than 300 percent by the end of next year, Geoff Kendrick, the head of FX research at British bank Standard Chartered, wrote in a Monday note.
This comes as Wall Street waits for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to greenlight the first of these ETFs by Wednesday.
ETF approval could lead to huge inflows
“If ETF-related inflows occur as expected, we believe a level of $200,000 is possible by year-end 2025. This assumes that between 437,000 and 1.32 million new Bitcoins will be held in US spot ETFs by the end of 2024,” Kendrick wrote. He estimates that inflows this year alone could be $50 billion to $100 billion.
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Because: If Bitcoin reaches $200,000, this would mean a price increase of 344 percent compared to the current level of around $45,000.
Once these exchange-traded funds are up and running, demand would skyrocket, giving Bitcoin enough of a boost to potentially reach $100,000 before the end of 2024, according to Kendrick’s previous forecast. His bullish forecast also sees declining supply given the upcoming halving cycle and token hoarding by miners.
Kendrick draws a parallel to the first exchange-traded spot gold product
In setting his outlook for Bitcoin in 2025, Kendrick drew a parallel to the first spot gold exchange-traded product and its impact on the price of the metal. The reason: After SPDR Gold Shares came onto the market in 2004, the price gradually increased and more than quadrupled within seven years.
“We use this 4.3x increase as a base case for Bitcoin, but we expect BTC gains to occur over a short period of one to two years because we expect the BTC ETF market to mature more quickly will,” said Kendrick.
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He also noted that Bitcoin prices rose to similar levels as holdings in exchange-traded funds outside the U.S. surged in 2020. Meanwhile, any increase in demand would have a major impact on the price of Bitcoin as the amount of immediately available supply decreases, Kendrick added.
“This measure is at an all-time low relative to the total supply in circulation,” he said. “In other words: supply is more price inelastic than ever before.”
This text appeared first here and was translated from English by Joana Lehner.
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