Original title: Beijing’s CPI month-on-month shift to higher egg prices become the focus
Beijing Business Daily (Reporter Tao Feng Wang Chenting) On August 10, according to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the Beijing Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7% month-on-month and 1.5% year-on-year in July. Among them, food prices fell by 3.8% year-on-year, pork prices fell by 44.6% year-on-year, and the decline was 6.7 percentage points higher than the previous month; freshwater fish and egg prices rose by 33% and 9.9%, respectively, and the growth rates were down 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. . It is worth noting that the recent increase in egg prices has attracted attention from all parties. From a national perspective, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the price of eggs has exceeded the “5 yuan” mark per catty, a year-on-year increase of 33.4%. According to expert analysis, this is related to factors such as the drop in laying rate of laying hens and the increase in feed costs due to the hot weather.
Specifically, according to calculations by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, within the 1.5% year-on-year increase, the carryover impact of last year’s price changes was approximately 0.3 percentage points, and the impact of the new price increase was approximately 1.2 percentage points. From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI went from a 0.4% decline last month to an increase of 0.7%. Prior to this, Beijing’s CPI had fallen month-on-month for many consecutive months.
“The CPI’s month-on-month rise was mainly due to the narrowing of food prices and the super-seasonal rise of non-food prices.” Wang Jingwen, a macro analyst at the China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, told a reporter from Beijing Commercial Daily, “From the perspective of non-food prices, Affected by summer factors and the graduation season, transportation, communications and rent prices have risen rapidly, but this year’s price increase has exceeded the level of the same period in previous years, which may reflect that the prices of upstream products remain high and the pressure on downstream transmission is increasing.”
Data show that food prices in Beijing continued to decline in July from the previous month, but the rate of decline narrowed by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.04 percentage points. Among them, affected by the hot and rainy weather in the vegetable production areas around Beijing, the price of fresh vegetables has changed from a 7% drop in the previous month to an increase of 6.5%; the hot weather has caused a drop in the production of laying hens, and the price of eggs has changed from a 0.3% drop in the previous month to an increase. 0.6%.
In terms of egg prices, from a national perspective, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the egg price on August 9 was 10.59 yuan/kg, compared with 8.89 yuan/kg on July 9, a one-month increase of 19.12%. “The reasons for the rise in eggs are that the stock of laying hens is low, and the second is that the high temperature has caused the laying rate of laying hens to drop, which has caused relatively tight supply and relatively stable demand. Therefore, the spot price has increased seasonally.” Guotai Junan Futures Agricultural Products Chief analyst Zhou Xiaoqiu believes.
In addition, a reporter from Beijing Commercial Daily learned that the rising cost of chicken feed is also the main reason. The prices of corn and soybean meal, the main ingredients of chicken feed, have risen significantly since last year. Pig, poultry, and aquatic feed manufacturers have all increased their feed prices by 50-100 yuan/ton.
Hualian Futures researcher Jiang Qin told reporters from Beijing Business Daily: “After the egg price exceeds 5 yuan, downstream dealers have limited ability to adapt to high-priced eggs and are unable to obtain goods. It is expected that the short-term egg price will be narrowed and the price increase will be weak. If the egg price maintains for a long time At a high level, the huge increase in farming profits will promote the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is bad for the price of far-month eggs.”
Unlike the rise in egg prices, pork prices continue to fall. On a year-on-year basis, the price of pork in Beijing fell by 44.6% in July, an increase of 6.7 percentage points from the previous month. However, the central government has continuously initiated purchasing and storage policies to stabilize market expectations. From a month-on-month perspective, the price drop of pork has narrowed by 11.6 percentage points from the previous month, and has fallen by 2.8% from the previous month.
The changes in national pork prices are similar. Jiang Qin believes that Jiangsu, Hunan, Hubei, Henan and other provinces have temporarily closed multiple highway intersections due to the impact of the epidemic. The spread of the epidemic has a greater impact on the transportation of live pigs and white striped pigs. The swine fever epidemic in Guangxi, Guangxi and other areas still exists, and there is a phenomenon of selling small-weight pigs. “The superimposed demand has not improved significantly, and some slaughter companies have a certain phenomenon of inventory, and insufficient orders have lowered prices. The supply of standard pigs is loose, the overall market supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price of pigs is weak. There is still room for price decline.” Jiang Qin Tell a reporter from Beijing Commercial Daily.